Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefing….


If you have a smart phone (iPhone, Android), I strongly recommend the use of the MyWarn App.. which operates in the background of your phone to let you know when there’s a general “heads up” risk of severe thunderstorms and/or tornadoes (day 1 and day 2 outlooks from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK). As the risk becomes more immediate and tornado and severe thunderstorm watches from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center and flash flood watches from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio become necessary, you’ll be notified. Finally, when the weather becomes an imminent and urgent threat to life and to property and tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings are issued from the NWS/Austin-San Antonio, you’ll be the first to know through this app whether you’re at your home or on the road in the USA. The GPS location feature of your phone tells the app where you are and you’re notified immediately whether you’re in Austin or Chicago.  All the details can be found here.


Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (
245am CT – Saturday / 21 December 2013

.. Cold Front Sliding Through the Austin Metro Area .. Earlier Than Expected ..
.. Light Rain and Rain Showers Continue Across the Area ..

At 245am.. a strong cold front has oozed southeastward  into the Austin metro area
and the IH35 corridor counties. Utilizing the LCRA hydromet system… … we find the cold front extending southwestward from
near McDade and Elgin in northern Bastrop county to just north of the downtown area
of Austin to between Wimberley and Dripping Springs in Hays County to south of
Blanco in southern Blanco County. At 250am, the temperature at ABIA is 70 degrees
while temperatures out near Lake Travis in western Travis County are in the lower
to middle 40s.

The sheer weight of the shallow wedge of colder air at the surface has allowed it to
come further southward  than I would have expected.. especially with the upper air low
pressure storm system still well to the west just west of El Paso over far west Texas.
This is a phenomena that is not that unusual since atmospheric computer forecast models
have a real difficulty resolving the southward movement of shallow wedge of colder air
like this especially when dealing with upper level storm systems still to the west.

The colder surface air moving into the area will reduce the possibility of severe weather
although hail could still remain a threat where stronger thunderstorms develop and become
rooted in the warmer air just above the shallow wedge of colder air through the morning
hours this Saturday. As the morning progresses, the real severe weather risk will develop
in areas to our distant east and northeast as depicted in the NWS/Storm Prediction Center’s
day 1 severe weather outlook (which becomes valid a 6am CT this morning)…

At 245am, thunderstorms are currently indicated.. back over the colder air..  between Brady
and Mason out to the west of our area with lighter rain and rain showers through much of the
Austin and IH35 corridor areas.

In summary.. rainfall of 1/2 inch, with isolated heavier totals,  could occur over our area along
with some hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning with any thunderstorms that manage to
develop or to move into the area today before precipitation tapers off by midday into afternoon
as the best atmospheric lift and instability associated with the upper level low pressure
disturbance moves east and north of the area.

Any significant weather reports (hail, wind, thunderstorms), please provide those to me via
email and I’ll forward to the NWS.

I’ll continue to monitor…