Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefing…. (1100pm CT-Fri/24Apr2015)

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #9
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1100pm CT – Friday / 24 April 2015

….  Severe Thunderstorm Risk Decreasing Rapidly ….

At 1100pm, I believe that the risk of severe thunderstorms is decreasing
and, in fact, as pointed out earlier, I am wondering if we’ll see much in the
way of precipitation for the IH35 corridor counties for the overnight hours.

Latest data suggests that increasing convective inhibition is developing with
the cooling of the evening. The latest high resolution model guidance is
suggesting, as it has for a few hours now, that while a few rain showers and
thunderstorms could develop between now and daybreak Saturday, most of
the activity will be well east of the IH 35 corridor.

Remember that the threat of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will be
present with any thunderstorms that do develop.

I will continue to monitor, but, based on the latest data and unless something
unexpected happens, this will be my last statement on this weather event.

…. Another Severe Thunderstorm Threat Late Sunday into Monday ….

A strong low pressure area and cold front will pass over the area around the time of
the Monday morning rush hour. Moisture will increase again Sunday ahead of this
system. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center, accordingly, has our area in a “slight”
severe thunderstorm risk area Sunday night into early Monday. Drier and much
cooler will filter into the area in the wake of the system Monday mid morning into