Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefing….

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #12
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
350pm CT – Tuesday / 16 June 2015

Links for you to have handy during this event…

NHC Tropical Cyclone Bill forecast package link…

Latest NASA Satellite Picture…

Latest NWS Composite Weather Radar for Southern Plains…

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Local Impacts Statement (HLS)…

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Website…

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

… New Public Advisory Issued by the NWS/National Hurricane Center
at this link….

.. Flash Flood Watch Continues for the IH35 Corridor Counties Until 1pm Thursday ..
.. Tornado Watch Continues for the IH35 Corridor Counties until 12 Midnight ..

.. Tropical Storm Bill.. Moving North Northwestward.. is Just West Southwest of Port Lavaca …
.. Weak Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression Still Forecast to Cross Over or Just to the East
of the Austin / South Central Texas Area Late Later Tonight into the Predawn Hours Wednesday ..
.. Heavy Rain and Tornado Threat Areawide Along and East of IH35 Corridor — All Persons
in South Central Texas Should Remain Weather Through Tonight to Daybreak Wednesday …

Rain bands are spreading west northwestward into the IH35 corridor counties as of 350pm on this
Tuesday. For the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor counties, rain will become more continuous
with a few thunderstorms likely along with increasingly breezy/gusty northeasterly wind  as we make
our way into the night. As the center of Bill approaches, we will see an increased risk of short lived
tropical tornadoes along with the greater risk of flash flooding where heavier torrential rains develop.

The latest guidance suggests that the system may stay a little further east of the IH35 corridor
counties  than we were earlier thinking… if that were the case, our forecast rainfall amounts might
be trending down a bit. However, there are no promises. It still difficult to tell where the heaviest
rain will develop. It’s a waiting game now.

Please be ready for a busy period weather wise for Austin and south central Texas area
through tonight and the predawn hours Wednesday. I urge you to be “weather ready” and ready
to react to NWS/Austin-San Antonio short fused weather warnings (flash flood and/or tornado) that
may become necessary. Please remember the NWS slogan “turn around.. don’t drown.”

Please take this last opportunity to please check your NOAA/NWS All Hazards Weather Radios to
make sure that the volume is turned up and that they are reset and ready to be alarmed  if warnings
are issued tonight into the predawn hours Wednesday.

It’s important to note that the ground across the area from the IH35 corridor counties eastward
through southeast Texas (Houston area) is saturated or nearly saturated so additional rainfall that will
be associated with this approaching system will cause problems quickly. Those problems could.. and will
likely in some areas along and east of IH35..  grow to be very serious in a quick period of time!!

The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) from now through
the next 2 days continues indicates forecast precipitation amounts up to 6 to 10 inches or more in areas
east of Austin with upwards of 2 to 4 inches possible in the Austin area proper.

Continuing to monitor… next update by later tonight.