Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Forecast Discussion (Thu/22Mar2012)

Updated  930am CDT Thursday / 22 March 2012

…. Stable Weather Pattern with a Clear to Partly Cloudy Sky Next Few Days ….
…. Warmer Daytime Temperatures Late Week through the Weekend ….
…. With More Instability, Slim Rain Chances by Middle Part of Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning… a surface cold fronts extends southward from the middle Mississippi Valley to the mouth of the Mississippi River southeast of New Orleans. Low pressure is located over the northern Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.  As a result, a  southwesterly surface wind is blowing across our area of Texas.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep counterclockwise rotating closed upper level low is over western Oklahoma. As a result, upper level winds are strong westerly across our area of Texas.

With the upper level low pressure disturbance now slowly departing, a stable and drier air mass is in place across our area.

A weak front will result in a wind shift tonight into early Friday with a return southerly wind by midday into early afternoon tomorrow.

A few more clouds will return by later tomorrow through the weekend, but, for the most part, a partly cloudy sky will permit lots of sunshine through the weekend into early next week.

Passing west-to-east overhead, weak upper air disturbances will combine with increased low level moisture and limited instability by the middle part of next week resulting in increased cloud cover and slim rain chances.

My forecast confidence through the early part of next week is very high with my confidence falling to medium to high with the increased cloud cover and slim rain chance for the middle part of next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a clear sky. Lows in the 50s. South southwesterly wind will become northeasterly after midnight. For  tomorrow, mostly sunny. Highs around 80. Northeasterly wind in the morning will become southeasterly in the afternoon.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel