Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Forecast Discussion (Mon/26Mar2012)

Updated  130pm CDT Monday / 26 March 2012

…. Humid Weather Pattern with a Partly Cloudy Sky to Start the New Week ….
…. Late Night and Early Morning Low Clouds and Patchy Fog the Next Few Days ….
…. With Passing Upper Air Disturbances, Clouds and Rain Chances Mid/Late Week ….

On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is over the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A north to south line.. or “trough”.. of low pressure is located over west Texas and New Mexico. As a result, a south southeasterly surface wind is blowing across our area of Texas.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep counterclockwise rotating closed upper level low and trough is located off the eastern US seaboard with another strong trough located just inland in the western USA. Between the two, an area of upper air high pressure covers the southern and central US plains states and is centered from eastern Kansas southward into east Texas. As a result, upper level winds are relatively light and variable across our area of Texas.

With the upper level high pressure overhead and to our east, a stable air mass is in place across our area.

With the south southeasterly surface wind, morning low clouds along with patchy morning fog will continue over the next few days. Otherwise, a partly cloudy sky will permit lots of sunshine into the middle part of this new week.

Passing west-to-east overhead, weak upper air disturbances will combine with increased low level moisture and limited instability by the middle part of next week resulting in increased cloud cover and widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday night and through Thursday and Friday.

A more stable weather pattern will return by the weekend with rain chances diminishing.

My forecast confidence through the first part of our week is very high with my confidence falling to medium to high with the timing of the increased cloud cover and slim rain chance for the middle and latter part of the week. My confidence continues at medium to high for next weekend.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky. Lows in the 50s to near 60. South southeasterly wind will prevail. For  tomorrow, low clouds and patchy morning fog will give way to a partly cloudy sky. Highs in the 80s with south southeasterly winds.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel