Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Forecast Discussion (Fri/30Mar2012)

Updated  130pm CDT Friday / 30 March 2012

…. A Fairly Stable Weather Pattern Due Through the Weekend ….
…. Much Warmer Than Average Temperatures Due Through the Weekend ….
…. A Cold Front Due Monday Afternoon with a Chance of Showers / Thunderstorms ….

On this Friday… an area of surface low pressure is over western Texas and western Oklahoma. A weak cold front extends from western Missouri southwestward into the low pressure area with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending from the surface low southward into the Texas Big Bend. Surface high pressure is located from Florida eastward over the western Atlantic Ocean. As a result, a south southeasterly surface wind is blowing across our area of Texas.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper air flow exists across the United States. As a result of the upper air wind flow, upper level winds are light to moderate westerly across our area of Texas.

With the south southeasterly surface wind across our area, abundant moisture continues across the area in what is otherwise a stable atmosphere. Late night and early morning low cloudiness and patchy fog is likely through the weekend given the residual surface moisture.

Upper high pressure is building overhead for the weekend. This will allow for more sunshine and much warmer than average afternoon highs, in the 80s to near 90 degrees, through Sunday.

A southeastward moving cold front is forecast into the area by Monday afternoon. The front will pass through the area with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the cold front, clearing and cooler temperatures will prevail later Monday night into the middle part of next week. Temperatures will be much closer to what they should be this time of year.

My forecast confidence over the next seven days is high to very high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky with low clouds developing after midnight. Lows in the 60s. South southeasterly wind will prevail. For¬† tomorrow, morning low clouds and patchy fog will give way to a mostly sunny sky. Highs in the 80s to near 90 with southerly winds.

Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel