Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Forecast Discussion for Thu/7Jun2012

Updated 130pm CDT Thursday / 7 June 2012

…. Upper Air Low Pressure Disturbance Has a More Substantial Effect on Area ….
…. Clouds and Rain Chances Continue over the Next 24 Hours or So ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern for the Weekend into Next Week ….

On this Thursday… a weakening stationary front extends westward from northern Florida to southeastern Louisiana and overhead of south central Texas. Surface high is over the Ohio Valley region. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southeasterly surface wind south of the stationary front and a east northeasterly wind north of the stationary front is occurring across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is located over the eastern seaboard of the USA with another one over the northwestern USA and the intermountain region. A small upper air low pressure disturbance is located over central Texas.  As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are variable over our area.

Again today, more changes as the small upper level low pressure area moves southeastward and ends up being closer to our area than I thought it would be yesterday. As a result, I’ll include scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast over about the next 24 hour period with upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain expected in some areas.

By late tomorrow through the weekend, guidance continues to suggest a drier and more stable weather pattern as upper high pressure generally dominates and acts like a “lid” on the atmosphere. I will continue to trend toward this drier solution for the weekend into next week with no mention of precipitation in the forecast and afternoon high temperatures trending toward above average.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with lows around 70. Southeasterly wind becoming more east northeasterly. For tomorrow, mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. East northeasterly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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