Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Special Weather Briefing
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
615pm CDT – Saturday / 17 August 2013

.. Tropical Weather System in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico ..

As most of you are aware, NWS/National Hurricane Center meteorologists have been
monitoring a west northwestward moving poorly developed system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and northern Bay of Campache.

Here is their latest outlook text.. from earlier this afternoon.. regarding the system…

"DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND LESS
DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...DEVELOPMENT IS LESS LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED."

At this point, I am not that worried about this system as far as having a major impact on our local area since most available numerical forecast guidance suggests that what ever the system ends up being will probably move more westward toward Mexico rather that northwestward toward Texas. If this type of path verifies, we would see a more moist and unstable tropical air mass return as the front in northwest Gulf of Mexico washes out and we could see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with daytime heating for the Tuesday through Friday period of the new week.

That being said, however, any change in movement or strengthening (or both) of this system, could result in dramatic changes in our forecast so we need to closely monitor the latest guidance and forecasts from the NWS/National Hurricane Center (link to their webpage: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ )

I will continue to monitor.. tk