Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK Special Briefing….

Austin and South Central Texas Weather Statement
Issued by UT Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
555pm CT – Thursday / 18 September 2014

… The Flash Flood Watch, as issued by the NWS Austin-San Antonio, Remains in Effect until 7am Friday …
… Flash Flood Warning for Northern Burnet and Western/Central Williamson County Continues Until 745pm …
… New Flash Flood Warning Just Issued for Parts of Williamson, Travis, Burnet, Llano and Blanco Counties Until 830pm …
… Possible Dangerous Flash Flood Event Developing Again Tonight Depending on Where Heaviest Rains Occur …

Just before 6pm, rain showers and heavier thunderstorms, accompanied by gusty winds and frequent deadly
lightning, are moving southward through Williamson and Burnet Counties into northern Travis County.
Thunderstorms over Burnet County are shown to have produced over 1000 lightning strikes the past 60 minutes
while the thunderstorms over Williamson County have produced lesser amounts (still dangerous though).

As we head toward sunset, as this rain and thunderstorm activity settles southward into the Austin metro area,
the potential exists for another dangerous flash flood event to develop especially if the precipitation moves over
or develops over the areas of Travis and Hays Counties that received over 4 inches up to over 6 inches last night.
If rains develop in these areas.. especially bounded by IH35 on the east and Lake Travis on the west over the western
parts of the Austin metro area, flash flooding will develop very rapidly. On the other hand, if the heaviest rains occur
over areas where rainfall was less last night, the problems would unfold more slowly. The long and short (and frustrating)
part of this story is that we really won’t know until the rain sets in or develops over over any given area.

Forecast rainfall amounts between now and daybreak tomorrow morning.. based on NWS Austin San Antonio produced
guidance… is, on average, in the 1 to 3 inch range with isolated totals of 3 to 5 inches possible.

As a result, I cannot state strongly enough that all interests MUST remain weather aware tonight into the morning
hours on Friday throughout our Austin metro and IH35 corridor area.  We must remain situationally weather aware and
avoid  all flood prone areas including low water crossings and areas were  water traditionally  accumulates.. even if it’s
not raining in your immediate area. As weather deteriorates into the night, I would recommend you not being out into
the night unless absolutely necessary.

Weather tools:
City of Austin / Low Water Crossing Flooding….
LCRA Hydromet….

Continuing to monitor.. tk