Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 30 August 2018
… Dry Late Summer Weather Pattern …
… Slim Rain Chances Beginning Late in the Weekend …
… Watching the Gulf of Mexico for Next Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure, with clockwise wind circulation, continues over the southeastern USA with another area of high pressure over southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. To our distant north and northeast, a cold front extends westward from surface low over western Kentucky into northwestern Arkansas where it turns stationary and runs westward across extreme northern Oklahoma into a surface low over southeastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern covers the northern half of the country with generalized upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continuing from the southwestern US / northern Mexico east northeastward over Texas into the southeastern USA and eastern USA seaboard with the main upper level high pressure centers within this area over the eastern seaboard and over northwestern Mexico and southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are light and variable.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
The main upper level high pressure center has continued to be centered over the eastern USA seaboard and northwestern Mexico and southwestern USA. After a couple of days of weakening upper level high pressure.. and a few afternoon/evening rain showers and thunderstorms just to our south and east.. it is becoming more stable once again. As a result, my forecast is rain free over the next few days.
A more unstable situation does spread (finally) into south central Texas by late in the holiday weekend into Labor Day and the early half of next week. I will include widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast with an associated lightning risk. Rainfall, at this point, of up to a 1/4 inch is possible for this time period but, again, it’s important to remember that most areas will not receive any rainfall.
Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal averages but falling back a little closer to seasonal averages (but still above average) by late week through the weekend into next week with the increased cloud cover.
One last item today. Longer range computer guidance is suggesting that we need to watch the Gulf of Mexico for some potential tropical development by the middle and latter part of next week. Please understand that It is entirely too early to say what, where, when, etc, as far as this forecast is concerned. Be especially cautious when viewing any social media posts over the coming days especially if they’re coming from someone you do not know or do not trust (please rely on information from the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service Forecast Office /Austin-San Antonio or hopefully this blog). I’ll continue to watch this potential and let you know what I’m seeing.
Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 30 August 2018
TODAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY /LABOR DAY/…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 97. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 06 September 2018 through Wednesday / 12 September 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (30Aug)………………………………………. 7:07 am
Sunset this evening (30Aug)………………………………………… 7:56 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (31Aug)…………………………………………… 7:07 am
Sunset tomorrow (31Aug)……………………………………………. 7:54 pm