Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 08 November 2018
… Rain with Upper Air Storm System Moving Overhead Through Tomorrow…
… Much Cooler Temperatures Today into the Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening stationary front is well south southeast of the Austin area. It extends westward from the Florida panhandle to along the Louisiana coast then onshore of the upper Texas coast and into northern Mexico. High pressure, north of the front, from Iowa and the Dakotas and north northwestward into Canada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, the surface winds are north northeasterly.
On the upper air map… a broad and deep trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is located from central Canada into the central USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 70 to 80 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Later today through tonight, a strong upper level low pressure disturbance will make its way across Texas. This will result in quickly increasing rain chances in an overrunning pattern where the colder surface air is being overridden by abundant moisture. Even a few thunderstorms are possible.
As the upper air disturbance moves east of Texas, a reinforcing cold front will surge southeastward over the area by tonight with northerly winds increasing. While rain chances will decrease in the wake of the front tomorrow into tomorrow night, clouds will likely linger with below average temperatures through the weekend.
Another strong cold front with increased rain chances will approach the area Sunday into Sunday night and then finally moves across the area Monday into early Monday night.
Clouds will break Monday night with a return to sunshine for Tuesday into Wednesday with below average temperatures.
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, south central Texas can expect, on average, about an inch of rain over the next seven day period.
Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 08 November 2018
TODAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 68. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy and turning cooler with rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a stronger cold front passes. A 90% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 3/4 inch. Low 49. Northerly wind increasing to 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY…. Cloudy and much cooler with scattered rain showers mainly before noon. A 50% chance of rain in the morning falling back to 20% by late afternoon; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 57. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 43. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 53. North northeasterly wind 6 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 46. Light northeasterly wind becoming more easterly after midnight.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles developing. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 57. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain and rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 48. Easterly wind becoming more northerly after midnight as a cold front passes.
MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain and rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 53. Northerly wind increasing to 8 to 18 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. A few sprinkles early otherwise becoming partly cloudy after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 38. Northerly winds decreasing to 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 55. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 35. Light northeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 59. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 15 November 2018 through Wednesday / 22 November 2018…
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (08Nov)………………………………………. 6:51 am
Sunset this evening (08Nov)………………………………………… 5:38 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (09Nov)…………………………………………… 6:52 am
Sunset tomorrow (09Nov)……………………………………………. 5:37 pm