Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
815pm CT – Saturday / 02 March 2019

…. Much Colder Arctic Air On the Way Beginning Tomorrow ….
…. Longer Periods of Below Freezing Temperatures Expected in Overnight Hours ….
…. A Weak Disturbance Passes Over the Area Monday ….

Latest guidance.. both manual as well as computer model.. indicates that the much
advertised arctic cold front will move through the area tomorrow (Sunday) in the
late morning into midday hours. Contrary to earlier forecasts, a warm front to the south
of the area will not have enough time to move back northward before the arctic cold
air arrives; as a result, the arctic cold frontal arrival will not be marked so much by a wind
shift but a quickly increasing northerly wind in the 10am to 12 noon hour tomorrow.

Ahead of and along the arctic cold front tonight into tomorrow, we’ll see low clouds and
fog/drizzle along with scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Light north northeasterly
winds will prevail. Temperatures overnight into tomorrow will generally remain in the 40s
to near 50 before the front arrives.

As the front rapidly moves through the IH35 corridor tomorrow, temperatures will slowly
fall as northerly winds 15 to 25 mph and gusty overspread the area. Fog and cloudiness will
decrease as the front moves south of the area. As skies partially clear by the late
afternoon hours, temperatures will fall into the 30s with wind chill in the 20s.

Under a partly cloudy sky Sunday night with gusty northerly winds, temperatures will fall
through freezing by 7 to 8 pm.. with overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s along
the IH35 corridor. Wind chill temperatures will fall into the teens to near 20 for the
overnight hours. A 12 to 14 hour freeze is possible in areas along and northwestern parts
of the IH35 corridor with temperatures not rising above freezing until the mid morning
hours Monday.

A weak disturbance is now indicated by model guidance to cross the area Monday with
clouds increasing again by daybreak Monday morning with cloudiness continuing until
late afternoon/evening. With the clouds present, daytime highs on Monday will likely only reach
the mid 30s as northerly wind only slowly decrease. Even so, wind chills all day Monday
will range from the teens into the 20s. At this point, the overall atmosphere appears to
be too dry for any precipitation with this disturbance but we need to continue to monitor
this carefully.

As clouds break again with the passage of the weak disturbance Monday night into
Tuesday, another lengthy period of freezing temperatures are expected. Overnight lows will
be in the mid to upper 20s with some areas experiencing freezing temperatures up to 15 hours
for the Monday night into Tuesday morning time period.

On Tuesday, under a partly cloudy sky, after temperatures rise back above freezing in the mid
morning hours, I think we’ll see afternoon highs rise back to 40 to 45 degrees.

Tuesday night, we’ll see temperatures fall into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees under a partly
cloudy sky.

By Wednesday, a partly cloudy sky early will turn mostly cloudy as moisture starts to overrun
the surface based cold air with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

This is how I see this weather situation unfolding over the next couple of days. Make preparations now for lengthy periods of freezing or below freezing temperatures in the overnight hours and lower wind chills through the first half of the week.

I will continue to keep you informed on this weather situation and any changes in the forecast.

tk