Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Rain and a Few Thunderstorms Possible Late Tonight into Saturday (8a,Fr/18Dec2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 18 December 2020 ….

  
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) An upper level low pressure disturbance will pass west-to-east to our north by later tonight into tomorrow and allow a surface cold front to move eastward through the area about daybreak tomorrow. Clouds will increase in advance of the system with a an increased chance of rain and even a few thunderstorms east of the IH35 corridor by late tonight into Saturday morning. In the wake of the front, clouds will slowly clear out west-to-east, for late morning into midday tomorrow and continuing through the weekend and the first half of next week as temperatures warm back to above seasonal averages.

(2) Another stronger upper level trough, or line, of low pressure will move eastward across Texas by the middle part of next week with an attendant cold front moving through with some clouds (but no rain). Under a clearing sky, much cooler air will settle in for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with temperatures below seasonal averages.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, has increased a bit and is now suggesting amounts of 0.25″ or less for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Very High Confidence through Thursday

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 18 December 2020

TODAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. High 66. Light south southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles and scattered rain showers developing after midnight. Isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly along and east of the IH35 corridor after 4am. A 40%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ of less. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 10am as a cold front passes. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average an additional .10″ or less. Decreasing clouds late morning becoming mostly sunny.. breezy and less humid in the afternoon. High 65. Southwesterly wind early shifting north northwesterly 8 to 18 mph by mid morning into afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 37. North northwesterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 64. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 38. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 69. Light wind becoming south southwesterly 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 43. Light wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 50. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 72. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and turning colder as a cold front passes. Low 38. Wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph by early evening.

THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/…. Sunshine. High 56. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Thursday / 24 December 2020 through Wednesday / 30 December 2020…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average    
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 December)…………………………………. 7:22 am
Sunset this evening (18 December)…………………………………… 5:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 December)……………………………………… 7:22 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 December)………………………………………. 5:34 pm