Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #3
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
615pm CT – Thursday / 26 February 2015
…. Temperatures Slowly Falling Across the Area ….
…. Some Potential for Winter Weather Friday.. Friday Night into Saturday ….
…. Main Effect over the Hill Country and Areas Just Northwest of IH35 Corridor ….
… THERE ARE NO NWS WATCHES/ADVISORIES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT
FOR ANY OF OUR AREA …
SYNOPTIC/FORECAST REASONING:
With the passage of an weak upper air low pressure disturbance today to our north,
much colder surface based air is now settling southward across the area. At the
same time, an overrunning pattern has already set in where moisture rides up
and over colder surface based air. Clouds have already thickened over the area
with an increase with scattered patches of light precipitation areawide for
tomorrow.. tomorrow night and into the weekend. Precipitation is expected to be
very light with this weather system.
At 6pm… here are some of our representative temperatures…
Austin City (Camp Mabry)… 40F
Austin Bergstrom International Airport… 41F
Georgetown Municipal Airport… 39F
Austin Great Hills NWS Coop (Arboretum Area)… 37.9F
Lago Vista Rusty Allen Airport… 38F
San Marcos Municipal Airport… 43F
6pm LCRA Hydromet Temps (Cool useful site… http://hydromet.lcra.org )
Cedar Park 3SSW…. 37F
Lakeway 6W…. 35F
Across south central Texas, surface low temperatures are expected to be in the
27F to 32F degree range overnight; with clouds and the possibility of light
precipitation, temperatures will generally remain in the upper 30s all day
tomorrow then fall back to near to slightly above freezing Friday night.
Temperatures will then slowly warm back into the 40s on Saturday as clouds
and precipitation persist.
The big question, this evening, is when will precipitation commence across the area.
Short range models suggest that some patchy precipitation will begin or develop
around the morning rush hour with temperatures below the freezing mark. My initial
impression is in line with the NWS Austin-San Antonio thoughts that any precipitation
will be very light and will likely, given atmospheric column temperatures, probably be
light snow and maybe a few ice pellets (sleet). As surface temperatures warm above
freezing tomorrow in most areas by 10am, precipitation will likely turn back to patchy
light rain. Tomorrow night, as temperatures fall back closer to freezing once again, we
could see the threat of some freezing rain in areas mainly over the hill country. My
current thinking is that the Austin metro area will see temperatures remaining just
above the freezing mark tomorrow night into early Saturday.
While there is still uncertainty regarding the timing and exact precipitation types, this
still looks to me to be one of those borderline situations with some possibility of
mixed freezing and/or frozen precipitation mainly over the Texas Hill Country to
our west northwest. This could include the higher elevation areas of western and
central areas of Hays..Travis and Williamson counties west of the immediate IH35
corridor.
Everyone should remain weather aware.
I’ll issue updates as necessary.
tk