Updated 915am CT – Monday / 24 September 2018
… Clouds Linger as We Start a New Week …
… A Southward Moving Cold Front with Rain and Thunderstorms Mid Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a stationary front extends southwestward from mid and western parts of Tennessee into a weak surface low over the ArkLaTex region then southward along the Texas and Louisiana border into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Another cold front extends south southwestward from the upper Mississippi Valley into central Nebraska then westward into northern Colorado and into central Utah. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light and variable or light south southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving slowly eastward from west of Hudson Bay in Canada south southwestward into the intermountain west. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, is centered over the southeastern USA and western Atlantic Ocean. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west northwesterly 15 to 20 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
The front over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is weakening as moisture continues to ride up and over the top of the slightly cooler air in place over the IH35 corridor. The overrunning cloud cover will continue today into tonight before breaking tomorrow as the front returns northward as a warm front. Temperatures will be much warmer with a good bit of sunshine tomorrow.
By late tomorrow night into Wednesday, the upper level low pressure trough, over the intermountain west, will move eastward through the plains states and that will allow for a surface cold front to progress south southeastward through Texas. The front will arrive in the Austin and IH35 corridor by Wednesday morning into midday with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected. The front will wash out overhead or just to our southeast by Wednesday night into Thursday with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected to linger over our area.
As the front washes out, I’ll be keeping a partly to mostly cloudy sky with rain chances lingering over the area late week through our upcoming weekend.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center estimates that we’ll see 1 to 2 inches of rain during the next seven day period with isolated heavier totals.
Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 24 September 2018
TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/10th inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy and much warmer. High 90. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/10th inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a weak cold front moves into the area. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 14 to 1/2 inch. High 86. Light south southeasterly wind becoming northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 67. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 82. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 68. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 84. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 70. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 84. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 71. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 84. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 01 October 2018 through Sunday / 07 October 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (24Sep)………………………………………. 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (24Sep)………………………………………… 7:25 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (25Sep)…………………………………………… 7:21 am
Sunset tomorrow (25Sep)……………………………………………. 7:23 pm