Updated 915am CT – Monday / 05 November 2018
… Clouds Give Way to Sunshine and Much Warmer Temperatures …
… A Series of Cold Fronts Mid Week with Rain Chances …
… Much Cooler Temperatures Late Thursday Through the Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening stationary from extends westward from the Florida panhandle across the southern parts of Louisiana into the Texas coastal plains. Another cold front extends southwestward from a surface low over northwestern Oklahoma across the Texas panhandle and northern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, the surface winds are light southerly.
On the upper air map… a deep trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is located from west of Hudson Bay south through Texas and the southern plains state. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly around 50 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Low level moisture and clouds have increased as we’ve started the new week. Patchy fog has also been present. These clouds will break quickly as go through the day with well above average temperatures expected with a mostly clear/mostly sunny through tomorrow.
By Wednesday, a series of upper level low pressure disturbances will begin to move across the state. This will result in increased cloud cover and renewed rain chances. The first disturbance will result in a weak cold front moving southeastward into the area during the afternoon hours Wednesday. The front will pull up stationary to our southeast ahead of another stronger upper air low pressure disturbance expected to pass Thursday into Thursday night. This second disturbance will result in the best rain and thunderstorm chances as it allows a stronger cold front to moves into the area by late Thursday into Thursday night.
In the wake of the second cold front, rain will end and skies will partially clear by late Thursday night into Friday as much cooler air makes its way into Texas.
A dry and stable fall weather pattern, with well below average temperatures, will prevail Friday though our upcoming weekend as skies clear.
Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 05 November 2018
TODAY…. Becoming mostly sunny and warmer. High 80. South southwesterly 8 to 15 mph.
TONIGHT…. Most clear. Low 60. South southwesterly winds 4 to 8 mph becoming light overnight.
TUESDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny. High 83. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 66. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a weak cold front passes early in the morning. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 78. Southwesterly wind becoming north northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 60. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 70. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning cooler with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a stronger cold front passes. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 48. Northerly wind increasing to 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY…. Cloudy and much cooler with widely scattered rain showers mainly before noon. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 57. North northeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Decreasing clouds becoming partly cloudy. Low 43. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 60. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 44. Light east northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 64. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 12 November 2018 through Sunday / 19 November 2018…
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (05Nov)………………………………………. 6:49 am
Sunset this evening (05Nov)………………………………………… 5:40 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (06Nov)…………………………………………… 6:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (06Nov)……………………………………………. 5:39 pm