Updated 915am CT – Friday / 31 August 2018
… Dry Late Summer Weather Pattern Continues …
… Slim Rain Chances Beginning Later in the Weekend …
… Watching the Gulf of Mexico for Next Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure, with clockwise wind circulation, continues over the western Atlantic Ocean and the southeastern USA with another area of high pressure over southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. To our distant north and northeast, a warm front extends eastward from a surface low over southeastern Colorado into northeastern Oklahoma where it becomes stationary into southern Arkansas and northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure extends from the Colorado low into New Mexico and far west Texas near El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light southerly.
On the upper air map… although the general zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern covers the northern half of the country, a broad trough of upper level low pressure is deepening a bit from west of Hudson Bay into California. Generalized upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continuing from the southwestern US / northern Mexico east northeastward over Texas into the southeastern USA and eastern USA seaboard with the main upper level high pressure centers within this area over the eastern seaboard and over northeastern Mexico and southwestern Texas. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are east northeasterly 10 to 15 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
The main upper level high pressure center has continued to be centered over the eastern USA seaboard and just to our west over southwest Texas and northeastern Mexico. As a result, my forecast is rain free over the day or so.
A more unstable situation does spread (finally) into south central Texas by late tomorrow into late in the holiday weekend and Labor Day as well as much of next week. I will include widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast with an associated lightning risk. Rainfall, at this point, of up to a 1/4 inch is possible for this time period but, again, it’s important to remember that most areas will not receive any rainfall at any given time.
Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal averages but falling back a little closer to seasonal averages by late in the weekend into next week with the increased cloud cover.
Updating you, some of the longer range computer guidance continues to suggest that we need to watch the Gulf of Mexico for some potential tropical development by the middle and latter part of next week. The NWS/National Hurricane Center is not mentioning an area in the eastern Gulf in their 5 day outlook. Please understand that it is still entirely too early to say what, where, when, etc, as far as any potential tropical development and how it may or may not affect our area. Be especially cautious when viewing any social media posts over the coming days especially if they’re coming from someone you do not know or do not trust (please rely on information from the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service Forecast Office /Austin-San Antonio, Bob Rose’s weather blog at LCRA or hopefully this blog). I’m continuing to watch this potential and let you know what I’m seeing.
Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT… Friday / 31 August 2018
TODAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY /LABOR DAY/…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 94. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 07 September 2018 through Thursday / 13 September 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (31Aug)………………………………………. 7:07 am
Sunset this evening (31Aug)………………………………………… 7:54 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (01Sep)…………………………………………… 7:08 am
Sunset tomorrow (01Sep)……………………………………………. 7:53 pm