Updated 915am CT – Friday / 12 October 2018
… Clouds and Rain Chances Return Quickly …
… Stronger Cold Front on Sunday …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a cold front extends southward from a surface low, the remnants of Michael, off the coast of the mid Atlantic coast into central Florida then the south and southwestern Gulf of Mexico and then northwestward into Mexico. High pressure, north of the front, is centered over Missouri and Iowa. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are east southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a eastward moving deep broad trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is located from central Canada southwestward into the central plains. Upper level low pressure disturbances are located over northwestern Mexico (the remnants of Pacific tropical cyclone Sergio) as well as off the coast of southern California. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west southwesterly 55 to 65 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
As the surface high to our distant north northeast moves eastward, I expect a rapid return of low and mid level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the remnants of Pacific tropical cyclone Sergio will track east northeastward across Texas over the next 24 to 48 hours with increasing rain and thunderstorm activity as we increase the atmospheric lift in a more unstable air mass.
As the upper level remnants of Sergio move out of Texas by Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, the upper levels winds will turn more northwesterly and this will allow for a strong surface cold front to surge southward over Texas Sunday night.
The much cooler surface air.. only several thousand feet thick.. will continue to be overridden by low and mid level moisture even in the days after the front passes with a chilly, cloudy and wet weather pattern persisting through much of next week.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests an average of 2 to 4 inches of rain for our local area over the next seven day period with isolated heavier totals possible.
Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
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Updated 845am CT… Friday / 12 October 2018
TODAY…. Partly cloudy. High 82. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers developing by midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average less than 1/10th inch. Low 70. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before noon with rain and thunderstorm chances increasing during the afternoon. A 40% chance of rain in the morning increasing to 60% by late afternoon; rainfall will average 1/4 to 3/4 inch. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning much cooler with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 53. Southerly wind shifting north northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
MONDAY…. Cloudy and much cooler with scattered to numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 57. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 50. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 55. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 48. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 59. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 50. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 65. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 19 October 2018 through Thursday / 25 October 2018…
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12Oct)………………………………………. 7:31 am
Sunset this evening (12Oct)………………………………………… 7:03 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (13Oct)…………………………………………… 7:32 am
Sunset tomorrow (13Oct)……………………………………………. 7:02 pm