Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Clouds Come and Go as the Stable Weather Pattern Holds – For Now (Fr/07Oct2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 07 October 2022

Will Not Be Updated Today…

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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A very stable early fall weather pattern holds across south central Texas with a partly to mostly cloudy sky prevailing as high and mid level clouds stream out of Mexico and over our area.

(2) A series of weak cold fronts will progress into our area by later today into tonight but with little in the way of low level atmospheric moisture in place in advance of the system, I expect little in way of sensible weather (other than a wind shift) as the front settles into our area. Temperatures will cool only a degree or two in the wake of the front for the upcoming weekend as skies become mostly clear once again.

(3) By early into mid next week, there is evidence that we’ll see a more pronounced low level moisture return to the area at the same time that a trough, or line, of low pressure moves eastward from the upper plains into the Rockies.

(4) By next Thursday into Friday, in a lower confidence forecast, we will see a chance of rain along with the possibility of the fall season’s first significant cold front along the IH35 corridor by Thursday afternoon and night as the before mentioned low pressure trough moves eastward through the lower 48 states.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance continues to show little or no rainfall over our area for the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high confidence forecast through mid part of next week then becoming a low to medium confidence forecast.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 07 October 2022

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 89. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 66. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy early then mostly sunny. High 90. Light wind becoming easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 64. Light east northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 90. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 62. Light east southeasterly wind.

MONDAY /COLUMBUS DAY/…. Mostly sunny. High 90. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and a bit more humid. High 89. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with some low clouds developing after midnight. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 89. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with some low clouds developing after midnight. Low 68. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and a thunderstorm or two by afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Where rainfall occurs, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, it will average .01″ inch or less. High 89. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 14 October through Thursday / 20 October 2022
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (07 Oct)………………………………………… 7:28 am
Sunset this evening (07 Oct)………………………………………….. 7:09 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (08 Oct)…………………………………………….. 7:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (08 Oct)……………………………………………… 7:08 pm