Updated 930am CDT Tuesday / 4 September 2012

… A Dry Forecast Continues …
… Cold Front Due Saturday with a Chance of Rain …
… A Little Cooler Saturday Night into Sunday and Monday…

On this Tuesday… surface high pressure is over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern USA with another surface high over the four corners area. A weakening stationary front extends from western Tennessee into Arkansas and northwestward into southern Kansas. A trough. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from a surface low over southwestern Kansas into west Texas. As a result of this surface pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, is situated from Texas westward into the southwestern USA. A trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is over the eastern USA. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light and variable over our area.

A dry and stable summertime weather pattern continues across our area.

The upper air pattern will begin to change across the USA by late week as a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure over the eastern half of the country and our winds aloft turn northwesterly and increase. This will allow a cold front to sweep southeastward through our area of Texas on Saturday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will develop just ahead of.. along and just behind the front. It appears that rainfall of 1/4 inch or less will occur with these thunderstorms locally.

Skies will clear with lower humidity and slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday night through Sunday and Monday as the surface high pressure behind the front builds into the area from the north northwest.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky with lows in the 70s with a southerly wind 8 to 15 mph. For tomorrow, some morning low clouds will give way to a mostly sunny with highs around 100 with a southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 130pm CDT Friday / 31 August 2012

… A Dry Seven Day Forecast …

On this Friday… the remnants of Isaac are located over northwestern Arkansas. Surface high pressure is over the southeastern USA and over the southern Rockies. As a result of this surface pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, is situated from the central plains and the southern Rockies. An upper level low is associated with the remnants of Isaac over the Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas/Missouri border region. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northwesterly over our area.

A dry and stable summertime weather pattern continues.

The remnants of Isaac continues to move northward through northwestern Arkansas.  The current track forecast suggests a continued north northeastward movement. With this movement, there will be little effect locally.

After isolated rain showers over the area this afternoon and evening (well below 20% for any given location), the upper level high pressure to our north and west, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, is building back overhead and will result in sinking air in the atmosphere, so the dry and stable weather pattern is expected to continue across the area through the next seven days. I do not expect any frontal passages/air mass changes. Temperatures should continue to be above seasonal averages.

Even beyond the current seven day forecast period, the NWS 8 to 14 day outlook for our area is calling for continued above average temperatures and below average precipitation through early/mid part of September.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky with lows in the 70s with a southerly wind 5 to 12 mph. For tomorrow, it’ll be partly cloudy with highs in the 90s with a southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel