Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #3
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
745am CT – Wednesday / 21 February 2018

.. Morning Update ..

What can I say? My forecast has gone completely “bust” in the overnight hours with
precipitation very limited while the temperature forecast has been a bit closer to what was
being forecast. What you read here is my forecast but I use the computer forecast models
as a tool in preparing it. Over the last 12 to 24 hours through 7am this morning, in my opinion,
the atmospheric computer models as well as even the National Weather Service guidance…
pretty much all of it…
have failed miserably, as far as precipitation coverage and amounts are
concerned. Nothing even close to
reality locally. As a result, in at least the forecast for the

overnight hours into early today, I have failed you. However, please remember that weather
forecasting is not a perfect science; I’ll promise that I’ll try to learn from this and do better
in the future.

OK.. let me step back and try again and look ahead today into tonight into tomorrow.
Yes, rainfall is still in the forecast!!

Colder surface based air, very shallow in nature, has taken over all of south central
Texas with the front now south of the IH10 corridor. The upper level low continues to the west
and will, over the next 24 to 36 hours (through tomorrow), continue to eject disturbances overhead.
As a result, clouds will remain a factor as the overrunning pattern with rain showers and even a
few thunderstorms becoming more numerous over the area.

Rainfall today into tonight will average an inch or less over the area, with isolated heavier totals.
Rainfall for tomorrow (Thursday) into tomorrow night will average 1/2 to 1 inch with some isolated
heavier totals. Heavier rainfall amounts will occur, of course, in areas where thunderstorms are more
prevalent.

That’s it for now. Please remember that the dangerous lightning risk with any thunderstorm
activity..

I’ll get back with you with any additional changes..

Troy

 

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
800pm CT – Tuesday / 20 February 2018

.. Brief Evening Update ..

Although the rain has been a little slow starting off today, I still expect precipitation,
based on the latest high resolution computer guidance, to pick up markedly in the hours
just before midnight and then continuing into the morning rush hour tomorrow morning.
As I pointed out in my previous statement, frequent cloud to ground lightning along with
the possibility of several inches of rain can still be expected between now and mid morning
tomorrow.

What has changed is a quicker progression of much colder air into the area. I now believe
that the leading edge of the that air will arrive locally between 1am and 4am tomorrow.
This will require me to bring temperatures down considerably with temperatures pretty
much holding where they are now, around 70 F, until the time the front arrives then falling
rapidly thereafter. With clouds and precipitation continuing on-and-off following the cold
frontal passage, I expect temperatures to fall into in the 40s by the morning rush hour
tomorrow and to remain in the 40s all day with a northerly wind.

Additional rainfall tomorrow (after mid morning) will average another 1 inch or less.

tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1 Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel 735am CT …

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