Updated 915am CT – Monday / 17 July 2017

.. Rain Chances Decrease as We Get Into our New Week ..
.. A Typical Summer Weather Pattern for Much of the Seven Day Forecast ..

On the Weather Map…
Surface map… weak surface high pressure continues over most of Texas with a trough, or line, of low pressure from eastern Colorado and western Kansas southward into the western Texas panhandle. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light.

Upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends from the eastern parts of Hudson Bay southward across the St. Lawrence River Valley and over the eastern USA seaboard. Another trough extends from an upper level low over southwestern Canada into the Pacific northwest. Upper air high pressure covers the southwestern and central USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are light easterly at less than 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
After some weekend rain and thunderstorms and even a few reports of straightline thunderstorm wind damage around Williamson County, it looks like a more stable weather pattern is developing.

Rain and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast today and again tomorrow but the chances are down from the weekend. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall amounts, on average, of 1/4 inch or less through the next seven days.

A dry and stable summer weather pattern, with plenty of sunshine, is expected with slowly warming temperatures mid and late week through next weekend.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 17 July 2017

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 97. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Isolated evening rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. otherwise partly cloudy. A 10% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 98. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly clear. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 24 July 2017 through Sunday / 30 July 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 July)…………………………………………….. 6:41 am
Sunset this evening (17 July)……………………………………………… 8:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 July)………………………………………………… 6:41 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 July)…………………………………………………. 8:33 pm

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 14 July 2017

.. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continuing ..
.. Rain Chances Headed Up Over the Weekend Into Early Next Week ..

On the Weather Map…
Surface map… surface high pressure is to the east of the area over the southeastern USA and the northern Gulf of Mexico with a stationary front moving southwestward from central Missouri and into a surface low over the western Oklahoma. A weakening cold front extends from the low into the northern Texas south plains and into central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

Upper air map… upper level high pressure covers the southwestern USA with weak upper level winds over the southern USA. Passing upper level low pressure disturbances, one over the Great Lakes and another offshore of British Columbia, are moving eastward and generally remaining along and north of the USA/Canada border. There is an upper level low pressure area over the Rio Grande River southeast of El Paso with several other upper air disturbances over the lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are light and variable less than 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
For one more day.. today.. there will continue to be little change in the overall stable weather pattern for south central Texas and the Austin metro area with afternoon highs continuing above average. While a few towering clouds are possible primarily in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor and along and south of the IH10 corridor today into this evening, rain chances today at any given location is 10% or less.

By tomorrow into next week, computer model and manual forecast guidance continues to suggest that the upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, will weaken a bit and settle back north northwestward into the northern Rockies and plains states. This will allow for better moisture flow off of the Gulf of Mexico as a weakening cold front settles southward into Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, I think we’ll see more cloud cover and a little better rain chances beginning tomorrow and continuing Sunday and into the new week. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall amounts, on average, of 1/2 inch locally for the time period tomorrow into the middle part of next week.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

—

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 14 July 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning hazard. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 98. Light winds becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. mainly before 9pm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Light wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. mainly before 9pm. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk.. mainly before 9pm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 97. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 21 July 2017 through Thursday / 27 July 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 July)…………………………………………….. 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (14 July)……………………………………………… 8:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 July)………………………………………………… 6:40 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 July)…………………………………………………. 8:34 pm