Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 10 May 2018

… Moisture on the Increase …
… A Stable Summer Like Weather Pattern Prevails …
… No Cold Frontal Passages Expected Over the Next Seven Days …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… high pressure is centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.. the southeastern USA and the western Atlantic Ocean. Another high pressure area is located over the four corners region to our distant northwest. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure extends from eastern Colorado and western Kansas south southwestward through west Texas and eastern New Mexico into northern Mexico.
As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward from over Hudson Bay southward over the eastern third of the USA. Another trough extends southward from the west coast of British Columbia to along the est coast of the USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northeasterly around 20 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

With surface high pressure to our distant east, we continue to see a surface south southeasterly wind.

With that comes a return of low level moisture with morning low clouds and patchy fog being present. Late night and early morning low cloudiness will continue over the
coming days.

Even with the return of low level moisture, I don’t see much of a chance of rain over the next seven day period. Models have become in better agreement with the weakening cold front, which has been forecast into Texas by early next week, now expected to wash out long before ever getting into our area. As a result of this better model agreement, I am going to pull any mention of rain through the next seven days.

Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 10 May 2018

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog, otherwise mostly sunny. High 90. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds late. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog, otherwise partly cloudy. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog, otherwise partly cloudy. High 90. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog, otherwise partly cloudy. High 90. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog, otherwise partly cloudy. High 90. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog, otherwise partly cloudy. High 90. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog, otherwise partly cloudy. High 90. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 17 May 2018 through Wednesday / 23 May 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (10 May)………………………………………… 6:40 am
Sunset this evening (10 May)………………………………………….. 8:15 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (11 May)…………………………………………….. 6:39 am
Sunset tomorrow (11 May)……………………………………………… 8:15 pm

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 09 May 2018

… Low Level Moisture Increases Late Week into the Weekend …
… No Cold Frontal Passages Expected Through Saturday …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is centered over the eastern USA. A trough, or line of surface low pressure, extends southward from a surface low over Western Kansas into far west and southwestern Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… a broad trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward from eastern Canada then southward to cover the eastern third of the USA. Over the western two thirds of the USA, the upper level wind pattern is more zonal (west-to-east) with an embedded upper air disturbance over the Rockies and a stronger upper air low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

As surface high pressure, just to our distant east, continues to move eastward, we continue to see a surface southerly wind. Temperature, as they did last few days, will warm up quickly with above average temperatures expected.

Continuing through the balance of the week through the upcoming weekend, we’ll see more of a south southeasterly surface wind with a better return of low level moisture. Light night and early morning low cloudiness will make a return with a more noticeable low level cloud deck in the early morning hours Thursday and continuing through the weekend.

Even with the return of low level moisture, I don’t see much of a chance of rain until we see a weakening cold front move into Texas by next Monday into Tuesday. It still looks like the front will wash out before reaching our local area. Models are still not in complete agreement and, if anything, rain chances may have decreased a bit for early next week. I’ll continue to keep slim rain chances and will continue to watch the atmospheric models to see if we can get better agreement on solutions.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 09 May 2018

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 91. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny and more humid. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 16 May 2018 through Tuesday / 22 May 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (09 May)………………………………………… 6:41 am
Sunset this evening (09 May)………………………………………….. 8:14 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (10 May)…………………………………………….. 6:40 am
Sunset tomorrow (10 May)……………………………………………… 8:15 pm

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 08 May 2018 … Low Level Moisture Increases Late Week into the Weekend … …

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Updated 915am CT – Monday / 07 May 2018 … A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues … … Low …

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Friday morning / 04 May Due to ongoing weather, I will be a bit late in posting my forecast here. …

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