Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Better Rain Chances, On and Off, Over the Next Week (Mon/20Jul2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 20 July 2020 ….

      
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

.. Atmosphere Turns A Bit More Unstable ..
.. Watching the Tropics ..

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…

(1) A general area of upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on our atmosphere, has, as advertised, has weakened and shifted more northeast of the area. This allowed a weak westward moving disturbance to move across the Texas coastal plains yesterday with a few rain showers and a thunderstorm or two in parts of the IH35 corridor and Austin metro area.

(2) In the overnight hours, NWS/National Hurricane Center meteorologists tell us that a weak area of surface low pressure has formed off the Texas coast. The system will move ashore later today into tonight with our best rain chances for the IH35 corridor coming tomorrow.

(3) The atmosphere will become a little more stable Wednesday into Thursday with rain chances reduced or dropped from the forecast.

(4) Another west northwestward moving tropical wave is forecast to move through the Gulf of Mexico this week arriving in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday through Friday and then moving ashore into Texas late Friday into the weekend with better rain chances locally.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Monday / 20 July 2020

TODAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 96 with an afternoon heat index of 101 to 105. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 9pm. A 20%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 94 with an afternoon heat index of 99 to 103. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 96 with an afternoon heat index of 100 to 104. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 98 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat by afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 93 with an afternoon heat index of 99 to 103. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. Low 74. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″. High 90. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. Low 74. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 95 with an afternoon heat index of 100 to 104. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Monday / 27 July 2020 through Sunday / 02 August 2020…
Temperatures… Above Average   
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 July)………………………………….. 6:42 am
Sunset this evening (20 July)……………………………………. 8:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 July)………………………………………. 6:43 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 July)………………………………………… 8:31 pm

Little Change into the Weekend Weather Wise (Fr/17Jul2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 17 July 2020 ….

      
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

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activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

.. Above Average Summer Temperatures Continue ..

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…

.. A Stable and Dry Summer Weather Pattern Continues ..

(1) A general area of upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on our atmosphere, will continue to result in a stable summer weather pattern through the remainder of the week through the weekend and even into next week. Even so, the center of the upper level ridge is in the process of shifting more north of the area over the coming days or there will be a little less of a “lid” on the atmosphere.  While afternoon heat stress temperatures will be in excess of 100 degrees each day, afternoon high temperatures will come down a few degrees but still stay at 100 degrees or higher through late week before falling back to the upper 90s Friday into the weekend. Given the stable summer weather pattern, no precipitation is expected over the next seven days.

(2) There continue to be some increasing indications that a few afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Texas coastal plains, mainly south of the IH10 corridor, by early into mid parts of next week. At this point, these will remain to our south and southeast and, as a result, I do not expect these to affect our local area. This could change, however…

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Friday / 17 July 2020

TODAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 99 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 98 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 98 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 98 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 98 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 98 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Friday / 24 July 2020 through Thursday / 30 July 2020…
Temperatures… Above Average   
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 July)………………………………….. 6:41 am
Sunset this evening (17 July)……………………………………. 8:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 July)………………………………………. 6:41 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 July)………………………………………… 8:33 pm