Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin/South Central Texas Forecast (Mon/19Mar2012)

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Updated 900am CST.. Monday / 19 March 2012

TODAY…. A cloudy sky with rain showers and thunderstorms likely.. a 70% chance of rain. Some thunderstorms may be severe with larger hail, damaging straightline thunderstorm winds and isolated tornadoes late in the afternoon. High 74 to 78. South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.  Rainfall with average 1/2 to 3/4 inch.

TONIGHT…. A cloudy sky with rain showers and thunderstorms.. a near 100% chance of rain. Some thunderstorms may be severe with larger hail, damaging straightline thunderstorm winds and tornadoes. Heavy rainfall may create flooding problems. Low 58 to 62. South southeasterly wind 12 to 22 mph with some higher gusts. Additional rainfall will average 1 1/4 to 2 1/4 inches.

TUESDAY…. A cloudy sky with an 80% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning.. with cooler temperatures and decreasing rain chances in the afternoon as a cold front passes eastward through the area. High 68 to 72. South southwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph becoming northwesterly in the morning. Additional rainfall will average 1/2 to 3/4  inch.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cooler with a 50% chance of rain. Low 47 to 51. West northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph. Evening rainfall of less than 1/10th of an inch.

WEDNESDAY…. A 20% chance of early morning rain.. otherwise becoming partly cloudy. High 68 to 72.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 47 to 51.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy and warmer. High 75 to 79.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 51 to 55.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 77 to 81.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 53 to 57.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 78 to 82.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 59.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 79 to 83.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 26 Mar 2012 through Sunday / 1 Apr 2012…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 Mar)…………… 7:36 am
Sunset this evening (19 Mar)……………. 7:42 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (20 Mar)………………… 7:34 am
Sunset Tuesday (20 Mar)…………………. 7:43 pm

….AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT….
…RECORDED FRIDAY / 09 MARCH 2012…
(Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and is
courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and Dr. T. Ray Vaughn
and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer)

Molds….. 1470 gr/cubic meter (Moderate) – Down Since Last Reading
Grasses….. 10 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Up Since Last Reading
Weeds…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Weeds:
…None Reported …
Trees…… 820 gr/cubic meter (High) – Up Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Trees:
…Oak 358.. Hackberry 281.. Ash 150.. Willow 7.. Sycamore

TK’s Weather Discussion (Mon/19Mar2012)

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Updated  900am Monday / 19 March 2012

…. Rainy and Stormy Start to the New Week …
…. Severe Thunderstorms Very Likely Later Today into Tonight ….
…. Elevated SPC “Moderate” Severe Risk Area Includes all of our Area ….
…. Heavy Rainfall Amounts Expected with Some Flooding Problems ….

On this Monday morning… a surface cold front extends southward from western Nebraska southward into western Kansas and west Texas and then extending southward into Mexico. Surface high pressure is over the southeastern USA with a resulting well pronounced moist southerly surface wind across Texas.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep counterclockwise rotating trough. or line.. of upper air low pressure is situated from Washington south southeastward into Arizona with an dynamic eastward moving closed upper air low developing by tonight over New Mexico. As a result, upper level winds are strong southwesterly across Texas.

By later today into tonight.. the cold front will move slowly eastward as a strong upper level low pressure area.. lagging back behind the front.. moves slowly eastward out of west Texas. In advance of both of these weather features, upward lift and atmospheric instability will greatly intensify allowing for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Given the expected atmospheric instability, atmospheric lift and the forecast atmospheric wind field, a severe thunderstorm outbreak is very likely across our area with tornadoes possible.

In addition, with the slow eastward movement of this system, the precipitation will be prolonged across the area. The strongest thunderstorms will not end until the surface cold front moves through our local area early tomorrow (Tuesday).

With the upper level low pressure disturbance lingering behind the front, it is likely that scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as well as clouds will continue in the cooler post-frontal environment tomorrow and tomorrow night and into Wednesday before skies partially clear with the passage of the upper air low pressure disturbance later on  Wednesday.

Skies will be partly cloudy with a more stable and drier air mass in place Wednesday into Thursday with return southerly wind and warmer temperatures late week through next weekend.

My forecast confidence through tomorrow is high to very high. My forecast confidence Tuesday night through the remainder of the week into the weekend is very high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see rain showers and thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain possible. Lows in the 50s to near 60. South southeasterly winds will continue. For  tomorrow, morning rain showers and thunderstorms with a cold front passing by afternoon. Highs around 70. South southwesterly surface winds will become northwesterly as the cold front passes.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel