Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 19 December 2013

TODAY….  Morning low clouds and patchy drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 71 to 75. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 60 to 64. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/10th inch. High 73 to 77. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. specially after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 61 to 65. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy and breezy with a 60% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 inch. Stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by hail and strong gusty winds. High 70 to 74. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 60% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 inch. Stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by hail and strong gusty wind. Turning cooler toward daybreak. Low 49 to 51. South southwesterly wind shifting northerly wind 8 to 18 mph with cold frontal passage toward daybreak.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy.. breezy and cooler with a few sprinkles before 9am.. then becoming partly cloudy by midday and then mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 54 to 58. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and colder. Low 34 to 38. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 52 to 56. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 31 to 35. Light northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 54 to 58. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 32 to 36. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 57 to 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 26 December 2013  through Wednesday / 1 January 2014…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 December)…………………………….. 7:22 am
Sunset this evening (19 December)………………………………. 5:34 pm
Sunrise Friday (20 December)……………………………………… 7:23 am
Sunset Friday (20 December)………………………………………. 5:35 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT Thursday / 19 December 2013

…. Clouds and Humidity Picks Up Tonight and Tomorrow Through Late Week ….
…. Upper Air Storm System and Cold Front Due Late Tomorrow into Saturday ….
…. Beneficial Rainfall and Possibility of Stronger Thunderstorms Saturday ….

On this Thursday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the western Atlantic Ocean and westward into the Carolinas and Georgia. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from a low pressure area in southwestern Kansas into west Texas and then into far southwest Texas. Another high pressure area is over western Colorado. A strong cold front extends southwestward from the northern Great Lakes into central Kansas the northwestward into a developing low pressure storm system over Wyoming. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening/strengthening upper level low pressure trough is moving southeastward through the western USA with an intense upper level disturbance embedded within the trough over central California southeast of the San Francisco Bay Area. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground have become more southwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

The dry and stable weather pattern over the area is coming to an end as southerly surface winds are returning abundant low level moisture with clouds becoming more common. As this moisture continues to increase, we’ll continue to see clouds thicken and lower. In addition, late night and early morning low cloudiness.. patchy fog and light drizzle is possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

The upper level trough over the western USA.. and the associated intense upper air low pressure disturbance over central California.. will move eastward Rockies and plains over the next 24 to 48 hours. As it approaches, atmospheric instability and lift will increase with an increasing likelihood of rain showers and thunderstorms especially by tomorrow night into Saturday and Saturday night. Current guidance suggests upward of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain over our area with the NWS Storm Prediction Center putting the local area in a “slight” risk of severe thunderstorms for Saturday into Saturday night with larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm wind being the main risks.

As the upper air low pressure disturbance moves by late Saturday, the upper level wind pattern will shift allowing a strong cold front to surge southeastward through the area by the morning hours on Sunday. In the wake of the cold front, clouds will break with sunshine returning to the area by midday Sunday into early and middle parts of next week with below average temperatures returning to the area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today. For tomorrow through Saturday, my forecast confidence falls to medium to high (exact timing of rain, exact rain chances and the timing of the cold front still a question). My forecast confidence returns to very high for Sunday into early next week.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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