Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 23 April 2014

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. becoming partly cloudy. High 85.  South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds developing after 10pm. Isolated thunderstorms.. mainly west of the IH35 corridor. Where it occurs, given a less than 20% chance of rain, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 66. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds with a few sprinkles.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more easterly overnight.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 87. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Where it occurs, given a less than 20% chance of rain, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Where it occurs, given a less than 20% chance of rain, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles for the early morning hours. Becoming partly cloudy.. breezy and cooler as a cold front passes through the area by daybreak. High 80. Southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming northerly 10 to 20 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 55. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 76. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 30 April 2014 through Tuesday / 6 May 2014…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 April)………………………………….. 6:55 am
Sunset this evening (23 April)…………………………………… 8:04 pm
Sunrise Thursday (24 April)……………………………………… 6:54 am
Sunset Thursday (24 April)………………………………………. 8:04 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 23 April 2014

…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances Over Next 18 Hours and Again over the Weekend ….
…. A Cold Front into Texas Again Late Sunday into Monday ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends westward from the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts into south Texas near Del Rio. High pressure /1020mb/.. north of the front.. is situated over the Great Lakes. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure is over the northeastern USA while another stronger upper air trough is over the western third of the country. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are south southwesterly 15 to 25 mph.

Now that the high pressure area.. following the weak cold front early on Tuesday.. has moved to the east of the area, we’ve seen a return to a south southeasterly surface wind across our area.

A partly cloudy sky will continue over the next few days. A weak upper air disturbance could trigger one or two thunderstorms tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow but probabilities of rain, at any given location, are very slim and will mainly be west of the Austin area.

Another upper level low pressure disturbance.. off the Pacific Ocean and across the southwestern USA and northwestern Mexico.. will approach the area by the weekend with a strong cold front approaches our area by late Sunday into early Monday. Even as cooler air moves in, at this point, rain chances again look limited and mainly late Saturday into Sunday in advance of the front.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high for tomorrow through Friday (some questions about the isolated thunderstorms tonight into early tomorrow). My confidence falls back to medium to high confidence for Saturday through Sunday night into very early Monday as the next upper level low pressure storm system and surface cold fronts approaches the area. Forecast confidence rises back to very high in the wake of the series of cold fronts early next week.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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