Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

troyk

…. ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WED INTO THURS ….

by

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
845am CT – Monday / 02 March 2015

…. Another Potential Winter Weather Event Wednesday into Thursday ….

NWS WATCHES / ADVISORIES / WARNINGS:
None at this time

SYNOPTIC/FORECAST REASONING:
After a warmer than average day tomorrow (Tuesday) with highs in the 70s, another
arctic cold front will pass south southeastward through the Austin and south central
Texas area during the mid and late morning hours on Wednesday. On Wednesday,
temperatures will be in the 50s to near 60 in the morning with temperatures falling
quickly following the frontal passage. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the
low to mid 30s by the evening rush hour Wednesday. The latest guidance suggests
that temperatures will likely fall into the upper 20s Wednesday night and rise no
higher than the 30s on Thursday.

As the relatively shallow arctic cold air slides southward over the area, several
upper air low pressure disturbances will move across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Overrunning clouds and light precipitation will likely persist through
Thursday. Freezing/frozen winter precipitation will likely occur over parts of south
central Texas based on the latest guidance.

The cloudy.. potentially wet.. overrunning pattern is likely to continue into Friday
and into the weekend with temperatures only slowly warming.

We’ve still got a couple of days to refine the forecast details, but all local interests
across the area should stay in close touch with the latest south central Texas forecast
and weather information from the National Weather Service.

THREAT(S) FOR AUSTIN METRO AND IH35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES:
Low to moderate probability for a wintry precipitation mix (rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow)
Geographic area: IH35 Corridor Counties / Williamson, Travis, Hays
Time Period: 4pm Wednesday through 12 noon Thursday

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Weather system evolution: High to Very High
Precipitation chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into Thursday
Liquid precipitation (rain) chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into Thursday
Freezing precipitation (freezing rain/freezing drizzle) chances: Low to moderate
Frozen precipitation (snow/ice pellets-sleet) chances: Low to moderate
Thunderstorm/lightning chances: Moderate to high Wednesday to 12 noon
Severe thunderstorm chances: None 

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

tk

…. Temperatures At or Above Freezing …. This is My Last Statement ….

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510pm CT – Saturday / 28 February 2015

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #8 – FINAL STATEMENT
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
450pm CT – Saturday / 28 February 2015

…. Temperatures Above Freezing Now At Most Locations ….
…. Looking Ahead at Weather Threats for Next Week ….

At late afternoon on this Saturday.. although light rain continues across the area..
air temperatures have risen to well above freezing level at most locations. The
LCRA Hydromet is still showing 30 to 32F degree temperatures in extreme
western Travis County.. including 30F on the gauge at 1ESE Lago Vista
and also at 6W Lakeway. The same goes (30-32F) for northwestern Hays
County where there are a couple of 31F readings. Otherwise all temperatures
are at or above freezing at all locations in the IH35 corridor counties.  It is unlikely
that air temperatures will fall any tonight.. in fact, in some locations, temperatures
may actually rise a few degrees overnight. Therefore, there should not be any
widespread problems across the area tonight as light rain and clouds continue.

The overrunning pattern.. clouds and light rain.. will continue through tomorrow
and tomorrow night with warmer temps into the 50s tomorrow into Monday with
60s and 70s by Tuesday.

…. Looking Ahead ….
(1) Low level moisture and instability is forecast to increase enough for the possibility
of thunderstorms and an attendant lightning risk for Tuesday into Wednesday of the
new week ahead of the passage of an arctic cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening.
No severe weather is expected.

(2) The arctic origin cold front is forecast to move through our area Wednesday
afternoon and evening with a low threat of freezing or frozen precipitation (freezing drizzle/
freezing rain/sleet) for the IH35 corridor counties Wednesday night into Thursday. An
overrunning pattern with widely scattered patches of light precipitation is forecast to
develop in the post frontal environment for the overnight hours Wednesday into early
Thursday with low temperatures falling into the upper 20s to near 30.

I will keep you informed on this potential weather event as we get closer.

This is my last statement on this winter weather event.


Have a good what’s left of your weekend,
troy