Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 02 April 2015

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy.. breezy and warmer. High 84. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly as a cold front passes midday into early afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 56. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and much cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 69. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 54. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 68. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 58. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 80. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 09 Apr 2015 through Wednesday / 15 April 2015…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 April)…………………………………………. 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (02 April)…………………………………………… 7:51 pm
Sunrise Friday (03 April)………………………………………………….. 7:17 am
Sunset Friday (03 April)…………………………………………………… 7:51 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 02 April 2015

.. Warmer Than Average Temperatures Today ..
.. A Cold Front Moves Through Friday with an Overrunning Pattern for the Weekend ..

On this Thursday…. surface high pressure is just off the eastern seaboard of the USA with a southeasterly moving cold front which extends from a low over southeastern Iowa into southeastern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. The front continues westward across the Texas panhandle and north New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is situated from Idaho south southwestward into California. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

Morning low clouds give way to a partly cloudy sky and above average afternoon temperatures on this Thursday.

By tomorrow, a stronger cold front will cross the area in the afternoon hours with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms possible. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has posted a “marginal” risk of severe thunderstorms for the afternoon hours tomorrow as the front moves through. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance suggests upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inches of rain from this passing weather system.

Once the cooler surface based air moves in, an overrunning weather pattern where moisture runs back over the top of the cooler surface air producing clouds and rain chances Friday night through Saturday into Sunday. Daytime high temperatures will remain in the 60s to near 70 for the weekend with clouds prevailing.

Temperatures will warm with clouds breaking for the early part of next week with another cold front is due by the middle part of next week with rain chances increasing once again.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high today and tonight. With associated precipitation chances, my forecast confidence falls back to high tomorrow with timing and amounts along with the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms being the issues. My confidence goes back to high to very high Friday night through the weekend and into early next week with the forecast overrunning pattern (rainfall amounts and timing).

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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