troyk – Page 290 – Troy Kimmel Weather

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 05 December 2017

… Clouds.. On and Off Rain and Much Colder Conditions …
… A Rain / Snow Mix Possible Western Areas Wednesday Night …
… Sunshine Returns with Seasonal Temperatures Late Week into the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a strong cold front is moving southeastward through the Texas coastal plains as surface high pressure builds into Texas from the intermountain west and western Canada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are gusty northerly.

On the upper air map… a rather deep trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay into the central USA. Another strong upper air disturbance remains to the west over southern California. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are west southwesterly 40 to 50 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

In the wake of our early morning cold front this morning, rain chances will diminish although clouds will linger since part of the upper level trough is remaining to our west over southern California which will continue to produce a weak overrunning moisture pattern through tonight.

Tomorrow into tomorrow night, the last upper air low pressure disturbance will cross overhead with a chilly and wet weather pattern expected with temperatures well below seasonal averages. By tomorrow night, rain may mix at times with some snow in areas along and west of the IH35 corridor mainly in higher elevation areas. Due to the warmer ground, I do not anticipate any problems although I’ll continue to monitor.

Rainfall over the next two days, according to National Weather Service guidance, will average in the range of 3/4 inch to 1 1/4 inch.

A more stable late fall weather pattern will develop by Thursday night and Friday with precipitation ending and clouds clearing.

I expect plenty of sunshine for Friday through our upcoming weekend with temperatures around seasonal averages.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 05 December 2017

TODAY…. Cloudy and much cooler. Scattered rain showers diminishing after late morning. A 40% chance of morning rain; where it occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. Temperatures falling to around 52 midday and holding through the afternoon. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy and colder with a few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average trace amounts. Low 38. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with occasional rain and rain showers. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 40. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with occasional rain. Rain may become mixed with snow along and west of the IH35 corridor in higher elevations. A 70% chance of precipitation; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. No snow accumulations expected. Low 35. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with occasional rain mixed with snow early in areas of higher elevation along and west of the IH35 corridor before 8am. Scattered rain and rain showers after 8am. A 20% chance of precipitation; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. No snow accumulations expected. High 53. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. A few sprinkles early. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Decreasing clouds by midnight becoming mostly clear and colder. A light freeze possible in outlying and low lying areas. Low 34. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 60. West northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 37. Light northerly wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 66. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT …. Clear. Low 37. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 68. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly by afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 40. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 12 December 2017 through Monday / 18 December 2017…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (05 December)………………………………. 7:13 am
Sunset this evening (05 December)………………………………… 5:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (06 December)…………………………………… 7:14 am
Sunset tomorrow (06 December)……………………………………. 5:30 pm

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
800am CT – Tuesday / 05 December 2017

.. Rain/Snow Mix Possible Along and West of the IH35 Corridor Wednesday Evening into Early Thursday ..
.. No Accumulations Expected ..

On this Tuesday, a surface cold front continues to settle southward through the Texas coastal plains with
much colder surface based air continuing to feed into the area. At the same time, a passing upper air low
pressure disturbance is moving over the area with lingering light rain back in the post frontal colder air.

Temperatures with cloud cover today will remain around 50 degrees with patchy light rain tapering off
later today into tonight. By tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 30s.

A second upper air low pressure disturbance will approach and move over the area by late tomorrow
through tomorrow night and into the predawn hours Thursday with precipitation increasing once again
as colder air continues to deepen and filter southward into our area. As this occurs, surface temperatures
will hold in the upper 30s to near 40; developing light rain tomorrow afternoon will, after sunset, become mixed
with some snow flakes over the hill country. This rain/snow mix will then spread into the IH35 corridor..
especially in higher elevation areas of western Williamson, Travis and Hays counties.. for the overnight
hours Wednesday night as temperatures fall into the mid 30s before the precipitation tapers off with the
passage of the upper air low pressure disturbance by sunrise Thursday.

At this point, I expect surface air temperatures along the IH35 corridor to remain above the freezing
mark and this will combine with warm ground temperatures to keep us generally problem free. Some
areas of the Texas Hill Country to our west through northwest.. where temperatures get a little closer
to freezing.. could see some isolated and localized problems on bridges and overpasses. At this point,
due to the warmer ground, I do not anticipate any snow accumulations around the area.

I’ll continue to monitor this weather situation closely..

Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984