Author: troyk - Page 256 - Troy Kimmel Weather

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 16 April 2018

… A Dry Start to the Week …
… Storm System Returns Rain Chances Friday and Saturday …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is situated over the US central plains. A low pressure storm system is getting better developed over the intermountain west with a cold front extending south into southern California. A strong low pressure storm system is over North Carolina. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light and variable.

On the upper air map… two strong upper level low pressure storm systems are located over the USA.. one over the southern Great Lakes and the other over the Pacific northwest. A ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from northern Mexico into New Mexico and Colorado. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 40 to 45 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Abundant sunshine with prevail as we start our new week with warmer temperatures in place over the next few days.

A relatively weak cold front will move through our area by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Moisture and instability will be limited so I will not mention any rain chances.

A second and more potent upper level low pressure disturbance and associated stronger cold front will approach the area beginning Friday and will finally move through the area by Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Current guidance suggests sufficient moisture return along with plenty of instability in place over our area as this system moves through. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Friday and Friday night before peaking Saturday into Saturday night as the system moves eastward overhead. Current indications are that we’ll see a few stronger thunderstorms, with a possible hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat, for Saturday into Saturday evening. In addition, NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests an inch or rain will fall, on average, across the area.

Once the cold front passes Saturday night, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 16 April 2018

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 80. Light wind becoming southerly and increasing to 10 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 58. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy as a weak cold front passes in the afternoon. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting north northeasterly in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 81. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more easterly by afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 78. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain before 10pm with rain chances decreasing thereafter; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 58. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph by evening as the front passes.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 23 April 2018 through Sunday / 29 April 2018…
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 April)………………………………………. 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (16 April)………………………………………… 7:59 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 April)…………………………………………… 7:01 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 April)……………………………………………. 8:00 pm

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
345pm CT – Friday / 13 April 2018

As we go into our weekend, two weather related risks that we face here on the IH35 corridor… I will continue to monitor both of these risks…

(1) .. Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Between 6pm and 12 Midnight Tonight ..

Courtesy: NWS/Storm Prediction Center

As a strong upper level low pressure areas passes north of the area by tonight and an associated surface cold front moves across the IH35 corridor by midnight tonight, high resolution model guidance suggests that a few strong thunderstorms may develop just to our west or overhead between 6 and 8pm tonight and progress east southeast across the area.
Larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds are the biggest threat along with a lesser risk of tornadoes. The severe weather risk will be greatest in areas to the north, northeast and east of the Austin area proper. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms that develop.

Any outdoor activities this evening into tonight should be weather aware and be ready to seek safe shelter if thunderstorms develop.

—-

(2) .. A Wildfire Risk for Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night ..
.. A Fire Weather Watch Has Been Issued for the IH35 Corridor and Westward ..

Please pay close attention to the latest information tomorrow into tomorrow night from local officials reference this wildfire risk.

Authority: NWS Austin/San Antonio

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
308 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for areas west of the
Interstate 35 corridor due to very low relative humidities and
strong north winds Saturday morning through Saturday evening...

.A dry-line is currently moving through Val Verde and Edwards counties
and will continue east through the remainder of the afternoon and 
evening. Gusty west and northwest winds and very low relative 
humidity values will continue to develop behind it this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts around 30 mph and RH values bottoming out around
5 to 15 percent will develop through the late afternoon. When 
combined with dry fuels this result in critical fire weather 
conditions and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Val Verde, 
Kinney, and Edwards counties. 

A cold front is forecast to move through late tonight. Strong north 
winds will develop behind the front on Saturday, with drier air 
filtering into the rest of the region. Wind gusts to around 30 mph 
with minimum RH values in the teens to 20s will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. A Fire Weather 
Watch is in effect for areas near and west of I-35 and could be
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning tomorrow.

Dry and warmer conditions for Monday and Tuesday, and a breezy 
southerly wind could lead to elevated fire weather conditions in some
areas.

TXZ173-191-192-206-141100-
/O.EXA.KEWX.FW.A.0004.180414T1600Z-180415T0000Z/
Williamson-Hays-Travis-Comal-
308 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 
CORRIDOR...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a
Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. 

* AFFECTED AREA...All locations west of the Interstate 35 
  corridor. 

* WIND...North winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984