Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Thunderstorms With Gusty Winds and a Lightning Threat Later Today (Th/14Jul2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 14 July 2022

 

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. Dangerous Heat Indices and Scattered Thunderstorms Later
Today with a Lightning / Gusty Wind Threat ….

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) With upper level high pressure, anchored to our west over the four corners region, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, little change expected as a mostly stable summer like weather pattern continues. Abundant sunshine will continue for the week ahead with afternoon high temperatures warming to 100 degrees or higher (well above seasonal averages) with elevated heat indices.

(2) Given a bit of a signature in the short range / high resolution weather forecast guidance, I will introduce scattered thunderstorms into the forecast today/tonight, triggered by very intense heating and an enhancement in atmospheric moisture. With any thunderstorms, especially at peak daytime heating, there will be an associated frequent lightning and gusty wind threat.

(3) Once we get past today, rain chances seem to diminish for the balance of the seven day forecast period.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting 0.25 to 0.50 inch rainfall over our area mainly for this afternoon and tonight.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 14 July 2022

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning and gusty wind threat, after 3pm. A 40%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs it will average 0.25 inch or less. High 104. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning and gusty wind threat, before 9pm. A 40%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs it will average 0.25 inch or less. Becoming mostly clear late. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 103. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 21 July 2022 through Wednesday / 27 July 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 Jul)………………………………………….. 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (14 Jul)……………………………………………. 8:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 Jul)………………………………………………. 6:40 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 Jul)……………………………………………….. 8:34 pm

A Stray Afternoon Thunderstorm Otherwise the Oppressive Heat Continues (Tu/12Jul2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 12 July 2022

 

Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. Dangerous Heat Indices and an Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorm
with a Lightning / Gusty Wind Threat ….

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) With upper level high pressure, anchored to our west over the four corners region, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, little change expected as a stable summer like weather pattern continues. Abundant sunshine, for the week ahead with afternoon high temperatures warming to as high as 107 degrees today with heat indices to 110 to 112 degrees possible. Even though not mentioned below, isolated thunderstorms, triggered by very intense heating and an old weakening frontal boundary over our area, are possible today and the next day or so with an associated lightning and gusty wind threat.

(2) The upper level “lid” on the atmosphere overhead will be weakening slightly and settling more to the west of our area as he week goes along with afternoon high temperatures falling back a few degrees beginning tomorrow and continuing through the balance of the week into next weekend. Even so, I still think we’ll see afternoon highs well above seasonal averages.. in other words, above the 100 degree mark.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting little or no rainfall over our area for the next seven day period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 12 July 2022

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 79. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 104. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 79. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 103. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 79. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 103. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 19 July 2022 through Monday / 25 July 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 Jul)………………………………………….. 6:38 am
Sunset this evening (12 Jul)……………………………………………. 8:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (13 Jul)………………………………………………. 6:39 am
Sunset tomorrow (13 Jul)……………………………………………….. 8:35 pm