Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

troyk

Tuesday / 16 April 2019 Update….

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER HAZARDS
THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. No Weather Risks Indicated ….

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…

(1) A strong upper level low pressure disturbance and associated cold front will approach and move through the area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night with a good chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind; even an isolated tornado is possible.. as the cold front passes in the predawn hours Thursday morning…

(2) Clearing.. less humid and a little cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front for Thursday into Friday…

(3) A dry stable weather pattern will continue with abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures for the Easter weekend…

(4) Clouds and humidity increases for early next week in advance of yet another low pressure storm system and cold front due the middle part of next week …

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Tuesday / 16 April 2019

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 80. South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and a few rain showers developing after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing by afternoon with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be severe with a hail and strong thunderstorm wind threat. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/2 to 3/4 inch. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting southwesterly after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Some clouds around sunrise. Otherwise mostly sunny and less humid. High 76. Southwesterly winds early becoming north northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 51. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 54. Light north northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 83. Light wind becoming light southerly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 82. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Tuesday / 23 April 2019 through Monday / 29 April 2019…
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Above Average   
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 Apr)………………………………………. 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (16 Apr)………………………………………… 7:59 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 Apr)…………………………………………… 7:01 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 Apr)……………………………………………. 8:00 pm    

Tuesday / 16 April 2019 Update….

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Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
850am CT – Tuesday / 16 April 2019

…. Round of Severe Thunderstorms Possible Late Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night ….
…. NWS/Storm Prediction Center Posts Slight to Enhanced Severe Weather Risk for Area ….
…. Main Risks: Larger Hail and Damaging Thunderstorm Winds w/Tornado Risk N-NE ….
…. Risk Period: 4pm Wednesday to 1am Thursday ….

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/fema/images/fema06_swody2.png

A strong upper level low pressure and associated surface cold front will move across the
area late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. As it moves into an increasingly moist
and unstable air mass, it will produce dynamic atmospheric lift which will result in the
rapid development of thunderstorms over the hill country tomorrow afternoon. These
thunderstorms will then sweep eastward across our area late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night
with an associated large hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm wind risk. In addition,
there may be a tornado or two primarily in areas north through northeast of Austin.

Once the cold front moves through the area after midnight tomorrow night, the severe
weather risk will decrease.

As we head into tomorrow, please increase your weather awareness. Make sure your
NWS All Hazards Weather Radios are turned on and properly reset so that you’re set to
automatically receive any NWS Austin-San Antonio watches/advisories/warnings.

In addition, please sharpen your skills and know the difference between the terms…
watch.. advisory and warning (following graphic courtesy The University of Texas)..

I’ll continue to keep you informed.
tk