Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
845am CT – Monday / 02 March 2015
…. Another Potential Winter Weather Event Wednesday into Thursday ….
NWS WATCHES / ADVISORIES / WARNINGS:
None at this time
SYNOPTIC/FORECAST REASONING:
After a warmer than average day tomorrow (Tuesday) with highs in the 70s, another
arctic cold front will pass south southeastward through the Austin and south central
Texas area during the mid and late morning hours on Wednesday. On Wednesday,
temperatures will be in the 50s to near 60 in the morning with temperatures falling
quickly following the frontal passage. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the
low to mid 30s by the evening rush hour Wednesday. The latest guidance suggests
that temperatures will likely fall into the upper 20s Wednesday night and rise no
higher than the 30s on Thursday.
As the relatively shallow arctic cold air slides southward over the area, several
upper air low pressure disturbances will move across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Overrunning clouds and light precipitation will likely persist through
Thursday. Freezing/frozen winter precipitation will likely occur over parts of south
central Texas based on the latest guidance.
The cloudy.. potentially wet.. overrunning pattern is likely to continue into Friday
and into the weekend with temperatures only slowly warming.
We’ve still got a couple of days to refine the forecast details, but all local interests
across the area should stay in close touch with the latest south central Texas forecast
and weather information from the National Weather Service.
THREAT(S) FOR AUSTIN METRO AND IH35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES:
Low to moderate probability for a wintry precipitation mix (rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow)
Geographic area: IH35 Corridor Counties / Williamson, Travis, Hays
Time Period: 4pm Wednesday through 12 noon Thursday
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Weather system evolution: High to Very High
Precipitation chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into Thursday
Liquid precipitation (rain) chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into Thursday
Freezing precipitation (freezing rain/freezing drizzle) chances: Low to moderate
Frozen precipitation (snow/ice pellets-sleet) chances: Low to moderate
Thunderstorm/lightning chances: Moderate to high Wednesday to 12 noon
Severe thunderstorm chances: None
CALL TO ACTION:
Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.
Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.
tk