As an upper air low pressure trough pushes over the area, a surface cold front will surge southeastward
across the IH35 corridor by late afternoon into the evening hours. The air mass ahead of the upper air
low pressure disturbance and surface cold front will be sufficiently moist and unstable with the upper air
disturbance and surface cold front providing dynamic atmospheric lift.

A line of thunderstorms will be developing along and ahead of the best atmospheric lift with the strongest
thunderstorms into the IH35 corridor by 4 to 7pm with thunderstorms then moving eastward. Precipitation
should start tapering off after 8 to 9pm with the cold frontal passage / wind shift. Most precipitation, based
on the latest guidance, should be east of the IH35 corridor by midnight tomorrow night with clouds
locally decreasing thereafter.

The main risk will initially be larger hail and some damaging thunderstorm winds for the Austin metro and
the IH35 corridor area with more of a damaging thunderstorm wind threat and even the chance for a few
tornadoes.. even a few stronger/significant ones.. in the eastern areas of south central Texas into east Texas into
Louisiana and extreme western Mississippi by later tomorrow night and through the overnight hours.

Remember, as well, there will be dangerous lightning risk with all thunderstorms later tomorrow into
tomorrow night.

Given the flooding over the past few weeks, it is important to note that this system is progressive (quickly
moving) and forecast rainfall in most areas should be around an inch or even less. Isolated heavier totals
are possible to the east of the IH35 corridor.

I will continue to keep you informed..

By the way, I am now sending the most time sensitive weather updates via Twitter (@troykimmelwx)
so I invite you to follow me…