Updated 130pm CDT Tuesday / 8 May 2012

…. A Cold Front Has Settled South of the Area ….
…. Continued Rain Chances with a Passing Low Pressure Disturbance Tonight ….
…. Another Late Week Disturbance with Renewed Rain Chances Late Week ….
…. Additional Beneficial Rainfall Upwards of 2 to 3 Inches Through End of Week ….

On this Tuesday… a cold front has settled just to the south of our area and extends from northeast Texas to southeast of the IH35 corridor to near Laredo. A surface high pressure area.. centered over southeast Wyoming.. is building in behind the front.  As a result, a northerly surface wind is blowing across our area in the wake of the front.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level trough is located over the western USA with a strong low pressure disturbance within the flow over northern Mexico. Another upper level low pressure area is located over the Pacific west of the Baja Peninsula and is slowly moving eastward. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are moderate west southwesterly over Texas.

With the surface cold front just southeast of the area and with the next upper air disturbance over northern Mexico.. and headed this way.. scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are likely in our post frontal environment tonight. Periods of heavier rain are possible but the risk of severe thunderstorms should remain well to our south.

I think we’ll see a brief break on the weather pattern tomorrow into tomorrow night as surface high pressure.. in the wake of the front.. builds into Texas.

By later tomorrow night into Thursday and Friday, the upper air low pressure disturbance over the Pacific west of the Baja Peninsula moves slowly east northeastward from northern Mexico and across Texas. Another wave of rain showers and thunderstorms is likely with precipitation tapering off by late Friday night into early Saturday. Brief heavy rain is again possible as the upper air disturbance weakens and moves east northeast of our area. Severe weather is not expected to be a big threat with this secondary system.

A dry weather pattern will prevail for the weekend into early next week with temperatures warming back to near seasonal levels.

Rainfall this week will continue to be beneficial with some localized flooding problems (low water crossings, small creek and streams and urban flooding) possible. The latest NWS guidance suggests that an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain could occur between now and Saturday with some isolated heavier amounts possible mainly in areas over the hill country.

My forecast confidence is medium to high this week (timing of precipitation still being a question) and then high confidence for next weekend.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a cloudy sky with a good chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Northerly wind. For tomorrow, becoming partly cloudy with a few rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s to around 80 with a northerly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel