Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 20 February 2018
… Dynamic and Changing Weather Pattern …
… Stronger Thunderstorms Possible with Heavier Rains …
… A Cold Front Moves Through Tomorrow …
… Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues Late Week into the Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a southward moving cold front is located from northern Missouri into a surface low over northeastern Oklahoma then southwestward into central Oklahoma and the west Texas plains into northeastern New Mexico and northwestward into Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are south southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a deep trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from west of Hudson Bay into the southwestern USA and the Baja Peninsula. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are south southwesterly 85 to 95 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Our atmosphere continues to turn more moist and unstable. This is happening as the cold front, to our distant north, pushes slowly southward and the dynamic upper level trough, to our distant northwest, pushes slowly eastward. As these features approaches, atmospheric lift will be increasing as well.
As a result, rain showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous today with excessive rainfall expected particularly tonight and into tomorrow as the cold front moves through the area. While severe thunderstorms are not expected, we can’t completely discount the possibility of a couple of stronger thunderstorms. The main effect will be that the rain showers and thunderstorms will be quite efficient rainfall producers given the available atmospheric moisture. In general, most areas will, on average, receive somewhere between 1 and 3 inches of rain over the next few days with isolated higher totals. This will result in some localized flood problems in our area especially tonight into tomorrow.
Even with the passage of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and resultant cooling, we’ll continue rain shower and thunderstorm chances back in cooler air since the upper air low pressure area will remain to the west and will eject upper air disturbances late week through the weekend.
Another cold front will move into the area by Sunday with rain and thunderstorms chances persisting even after this second cold frontal passage.
Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 20 February 2018
TODAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms becoming likely with an associated lightning risk. An 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. An 90% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. Periods of heavy rain with localized flooding problems. Turning more showery and cooler in the morning as a cold front passes. A 90% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1 to 2 inches. High 63 with temperatures steady falling after the cold frontal passage. Southerly wind early becoming northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 42. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 57. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 53. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY…. Cloudy and warmer with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 72. Light northeasterly wind becoming east southeasterly in the afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the afternoon. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northerly by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy and cooler with a few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 49. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 65. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 49. Light east northeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 67. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southeasterly by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 27 February 2018 through Monday / 05 March 2018…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 February)………………………………….. 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (20 February)……………………………………. 6:23 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 February)………………………………………. 7:05 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 February)……………………………………….. 6:24 pm