Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 31 January 2018
… Low Clouds and Patchy Fog Quickly Give Way Back to Sunshine Today …
… Another Cold Front Moves Through Texas Tomorrow Afternoon …
… Clouds Increase Late Week into the Weekend with Slim Rain Chances …
… Another Cold Front Due on Sunday …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is centered over the Carolinas and the southeastern USA with a south southeastward moving cold front extending southwestward from the Great Lakes through central Iowa into Kansas and Colorado and then northwestward into Wyoming. A trough, or line, of surface low extends south southwestward from a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas into far west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light south southwestward.
On the upper air map… a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind flow covers most of the USA with a ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure off the west coast of the USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 60 to 70 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
We’ve seen more of an influx of moisture than I expected in the overnight hours with a narrow south/southwest to north/northeast band of low clouds and fog along and east of the IH35 corridor this morning. With the sun up now and the narrow nature of the cloud band, the clouds and fog should dissipate quickly with another day of abundant sunshine expected today. We’ll continue to see an increase in the lower atmospheric moisture with the south southwesterly surface wind through tonight into tomorrow so we will likely see some low clouds redevelop late tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow..
Another cold front slips south southeastward through Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Limited low level moisture and atmospheric instability and a rather stable air mass in advance of the front will preclude any rain chances at this point.
As cooler air settles southward over the area tomorrow night into Friday and the weekend, a series of upper air low pressure disturbances will move overhead with increasing clouds. Based on the latest computer model guidance and the more consistent low precipitation probabilities that have been forecast over the last day or two, I will go ahead and increase cloud cover and introduce very slim rain chances (mainly sprinkles) Friday night into Saturday and Saturday night.
A second cold front will move into Texas and across the local area by daybreak Sunday. Clearing skies and cooler temperatures will prevail for the end of the weekend into the first part of next week.
The latest guidance is suggesting increased cloud cover and even some slim precipitation probabilities by Tuesday into Tuesday night as an upper air disturbance moves west to east well north of our local area.
Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 31 January 2018
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 69. South southwesterly wind increasing to 8 to 18 mph.
TONIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 53. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds. Otherwise partly cloudy and much warmer. High 77. South southwesterly wind early shifting west northwesterly 8 to 15 mph as a cold front passes by late afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy and a bit cooler. Low 45. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 58. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles developing. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 45. Light northeasterly wind becoming more east southeasterly after midnight.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain. Where rainfall occurs, it will average only a few hundredths of an inch. High 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers as a cold front passes toward daybreak. A 20% chance of rain. Where rainfall occurs, it will average only a few hundredths of an inch. Low 49. Southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph shifting northwesterly after 3am.
SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy and less humid. High 62. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 40. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 65. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming partly cloudy. Low 47. Light easterly wind becoming more southeasterly by daybreak.
TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and warmer with a few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain. Where rainfall occurs, it will average a few hundredths of a inch. High 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 07 February 2018 through Tuesday / 13 February 2018…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (31 January)………………………………….. 7:22 am
Sunset this evening (31 January)……………………………………. 6:07 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (1 February)………………………………………. 7:21 am
Sunset tomorrow (1 February)……………………………………….. 6:08 pm