Updated 130pm CDT Thursday / 26 April 2012

…. South Southeasterly Surface Winds Continue Across Texas ….
…. Late Night and Early Morning Cloudiness with an Otherwise Partly Cloudy Sky ….
…. As Upper Level High Pressure Weakens, Afternoon Highs Fall a Few Degrees …

On this Thursday… surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and over the four corners region with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward from eastern Colorado and western Kansas into the western Oklahoma and western Texas panhandles and further south into southwest Texas.  A southward moving cold front is located from east central Missouri into central and western Oklahoma and into the Texas panhandle. As a result, a southerly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a broad upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure is situated north to south over the eastern USA while a closed area of upper level low pressure is moving northeastward through southern California. A shrinking ridge of upper level high pressure is over est Texas and northern Mexico. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light westerly over Texas.

The upper air ridge over Texas.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. has resulted in the above average daytime highs over the last few days. However, as the upper low in southern California moves northeastward, the high will continue to weaken and shrink.  As a result, a south southeasterly surface winds will continue with additional  return of low level moisture through the remainder of the week into the weekend with afternoon temperatures settling down a few degrees.

The latest guidance does not suggest and frontal passages over the next seven days with all fronts staying well to our northwest. The upper air wind pattern may cause one or two upper air disturbances to move by to our north next week. As a result, I will keep slim rain chances in my forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

My forecast confidence continues very high through the remainder of the week and through the weekend into the early and mid part of next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky with low clouds thickening after midnight. Lows in the 60s. South southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, it’ll be partly cloudy after morning low clouds. Highs in the 80s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel