Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
935pm CT – Thursday / 16 April 2015
… No Current Advisories/Watches/Warnings for IH35 Corridor Counties …
At 935pm… other than some scattered thunderstorms over Bastrop..
Lee and Fayette counties.. it’s looking quiet through the area.
No severe weather has been reported in Travis county from this system.. which
largely missed the Austin metro area proper. According to www.atxfloods.com.. only
four (4) low water crossings, out of 760 total, are affected with those being in
Bastrop and Caldwell counties.
Rainfall, this afternoon/evening, has been 0.20″ of an inch at KAUS/Austin Bergstrom
International Airport and 0.01″ at KATT/Austin City (Camp Mabry).
Hail to quarter size (1″ in diameter) was reported back in the 4pm hour over parts
of Hays County with rainfall of 2 1/2 inches in Bastrop county and 1 to 1 1/2 inches
reported in southern Hays County.
The latest short range high resolution computer models suggest a quiet night ahead
for our area with little in the way of precipitation through sunrise Friday. To me this
make sense with the atmosphere being temporarily “worked over” or stabilized by the
nearby thunderstorms earlier this evening and, of course, with the cooling of the
evening.
When we start to get daytime heating tomorrow and instability increases again in
combination with passing upper air disturbances, we should see a resurgence of
thunderstorms.. possibly severe with large hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm
winds along with frequent deadly cloud-to-ground lightning. This will likely continue into
tomorrow night and even a severe thunderstorm risk into Saturday according to the
latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance.
Coincidentally, the latest two day rainfall forecast from the NWS/Weather Prediction
Center suggests a rather beneficial 1 to 2 inches of rain in the IH35 corridor counties
between now and 7pm Saturday evening. Unfortunately, the forecast totals, for this
period are much less over hill country areas west of the IH35 corridor.
Always remember that frequent cloud to ground lightning is a BIG hazard with
thunderstorms.. when they threaten.. please stay indoors and away from electrical
appliances and plumbing devices.
Sleep well.. I will continuing to monitor. Another busy day may be ahead for tomorrow
and perhaps Saturday.
tk
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