Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 31 March 2015
.. Upper Level Low Pressure Disturbance Moves Overhead Tonight into Tomorrow ..
.. Better Rain and Thunderstorm Chances ..
.. A Cold Front Moves Through Friday with an Overrunning Pattern for the Weekend ..
On this Tuesday…. a northward moving weakening warm front extends from a low pressure area over northwestern Oklahoma east southeastward through central Arkansas then into eastern Mississippi and Alabama. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is situated off of the east coast of the USA. A strong upper air low pressure disturbance is located over the central part of the Baja Peninsula over the Pacific Ocean. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 15 to 25 mph.
We’re seeing increased clouds and even a few sprinkles or rain showers possible today but the better chance of thunderstorms comes tonight through tomorrow as the upper air low pressure area over the Baja Peninsula moves eastward through northern Mexico and Texas as it weakens. Latest NWS Storm Prediction Center guidance suggests a few strong thunderstorms are possible in areas well west of the IH35 corridor by later today into tonight.
This mid week round of rain showers and thunderstorms will produce upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain. Rain chances will decrease by tomorrow night with a mostly sunny sky and warmer temperatures returning Thursday.
A stronger cold front will cross the area on Friday by midday into early afternoon with relatively slim rain chances Friday.. Friday night and into and through our upcoming weekend as a Cooler than average and wet overrunning weather pattern becomes established across our area.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high over the next few days with precipitation timing and amounts being a little uncertain right now. My confidence goes back to very high on Thursday before falling back to medium to high for Friday and through next weekend with the associated cold front and forecast overrunning pattern.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel