Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
745am CT – Tuesday / 03 March 2015
…. Winter Weather Event Still in the Offing for Wednesday into Thursday ….
NWS WATCHES / ADVISORIES / WARNINGS:
None at this time
SYNOPTIC/FORECAST REASONING:
After a warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s, another arctic cold front will
pass south southeastward through the Austin and south central Texas area during
the late morning hours tomorrow. We will see temperatures tomorrow in the 50s to
near 60 in the morning with temperatures falling quickly following the frontal
passage. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s by the evening
rush hour Wednesday. The latest guidance suggests that temperatures will likely
fall into the upper 20s Wednesday night and rise no higher than the 30s on Thursday.
As the relatively shallow arctic cold air slides southward over the area, several
upper air low pressure disturbances will move across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will produce an overrunning clouds and light precipitation which will
likely persist through Thursday. Freezing/frozen winter precipitation will likely occur
over parts of south central Texas based on the latest guidance.
While we will likely see some breaks in the clouds by Thursday night into Friday, the
cloudy overrunning pattern is likely to kick back in by Friday night into the weekend
with temperatures only slowly warming.
We’ve still got a couple of days to refine the forecast details, but all local interests
across the area should stay in close touch with the latest south central Texas forecast
and weather information from the National Weather Service.
THREAT(S) FOR AUSTIN METRO AND IH35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES:
Low to moderate probability for a wintry precipitation mix (rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow)
Geographic area: IH35 Corridor Counties / Williamson, Travis, Hays
Time Period: 4pm Wednesday through 12 noon Thursday
Ice Accumulation: Possible with potential hazardous driving conditions 7pm Wed-1 pm Thu
Snow Accumulation: Little or none
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Weather system evolution: High to Very High
Precipitation chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into early Thursday
Liquid precipitation (rain) chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into Thursday
Freezing precipitation (freezing rain/freezing drizzle) chances: Moderate
Frozen precipitation (snow/ice pellets-sleet) chances: Moderate
Thunderstorm/lightning chances: Moderate to high Wednesday to 12 noon
Severe thunderstorm chances: None
CALL TO ACTION:
Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.
Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.
FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:
I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions, please let me know at [email protected]
GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center
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