Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 18 November 2014

…. Arctic High Pressure Starts its Move to the East ….
…. Warmer Temperatures, More Clouds and Rain Chances by Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. high pressure continues from western Arkansas and northeast Texas. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends from eastern Colorado and western Kansas into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a massive area of upper level low pressure area, covering much of the USA, is centered over the area from Hudson Bay south southeastward to the Great Lakes. A ridge of upper air high pressure is over the western coast of the USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 60 to 70 mph.

The arctic surface high pressure is now moving eastward with a southeasterly surface wind picking up locally by afternoon.

By the middle and latter part of this week, as south southeasterly surface winds increase, humidity and clouds will increase. With the approach of an upper air low pressure disturbance and another surface cold front by late Saturday into early Sunday, enough atmospheric instability and lift will develop for the possibility of rain showers and even stronger thunderstorms. Guidance continues to suggest that we could see upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rainfall across the area with this next weather system.

As the cold front passes early Sunday… breezy.. drier and cooler air will once again build into the area from the west and northwest with clearing skies.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very tonight through the next seven days.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel