Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 13 May 2014

…. Unseasonably Cool with Lingering Clouds and Rain Today into Tonight ….
…. Return to Sunshine Tomorrow Through The Weekend ….
…. A Warming Trend Getting Underway Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a strong cold front is moving southeastward through east Texas to just ashore of the Texas coast into south Texas and then into northeastern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a counterclockwise rotating trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends from the upper Mississippi Valley south southwestward into west Texas and northern Mexico. The upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are westerly 20 to 30 mph.

The surface cold front has moved through the area but the upper level disturbance out west is lagging behind the cold front; as a result, rain showers and even some thunderstorms will continue to “overrun” the much cooler surface air for today into tonight until the upper level trough moves east of the area. We can expect to receive another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rainfall with precipitation through tonight.

In the wake of the front and the upper level trough.. a drier and more stable weather pattern will prevail with a clearing sky and cooler temperatures, especially at night, through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will move east of the area by Friday allowing for a return south southeasterly surface wind by Friday into the weekend with a few clouds returning.

With the return to southerly surface winds, a warming trend will get underway late week into the weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high over the next seven day period.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel