Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 28 March 2013

Southerly Surface Winds Bring Abundant Moisture/Clouds ….
Slim Rain Chances Late Week Late Friday Through the Weekend ….
A Cold Front Brings Rain Chances Again by Monday Night into Tuesday ….

On this Thursday… surface high pressure extends from the Great Lakes southward into the southeastern USA. Low pressure is over west Texas and New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of Texas.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level low pressure system is along the northwestern USA coast with an otherwise zonal (west to east) wind pattern across the United States. As a result of this upper air wind flow, our upper level winds are light to moderate west northwesterly with winds over Austin at about 18,500 feet blowing about 30 to 40 mph.

With the surface high pressure to the east of the area and low pressure becoming better developed to the west… southerly wind and the associated surface moisture are continuing to increase. Clouds made a rapid return yesterday afternoon and will likely to continue with the atmosphere becoming more moist and unstable by tomorrow continuing through the weekend into early next week. We’ll see a slight chance of rain by tomorrow night through the weekend with the best chance being tomorrow night into Saturday as upper air low pressure disturbances move overhead.

Through Monday, as the humidity, clouds and temperatures increase, I do not see any air mass changes. Latest guidance suggests that a strong cold frontal passage will take place early next Tuesday with widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler temperatures will prevail in the wake of the front for the middle part of next week.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel