Updated 130pm CDT Tuesday / 19 June 2012

…. Rain Chances Increase A Bit Tonight into Tomorrow ….
…. A Drier More Stable Weather Pattern Late Week Through the Weekend ….
…. Still Watching the Potential for a Gulf Weather System by Early Next Week ….

On this Tuesday… a surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA with a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extending southwestward from western Kansas into northwest Texas and New Mexico. Another surface high is over the intermountain region. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southeasterly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure has continued to settle more to the west of the area over north central and northwestern Mexico. An upper level low is over south Texas. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are variable over our area.

The upper level low over south Texas will continue to be a factor across the area with the general low pressure disturbance will likely to settle more to west with our atmosphere more unsettled. As a result, I’ll be keeping my higher rain chances although I’m still not excited about the overall rain chances or the forecast rainfall amounts. The latest NWS rainfall guidance suggests rainfall amounts only around a quarter of an inch. Clouds will, of course, will be a little more prevalent as well.

By Thursday into the weekend and into early next week, the upper level high pressure area.. to the west.. will expand back toward the east resulting in lowered rain chances and less in the way of cloud cover. In addition, temperatures will creep upward under the atmospheric “lid.”

A quick update regarding the development of a surface low in the Bay of Campache / southwestern Gulf of Mexico for late weekend into next week. The models now suggest this system will be far enough south, mainly because of the persistent upper level high above us, so I’ll continue to keep a dry weather pattern for next week. As usual, though, I’ll keep an eye on this part of the forecast.

A reminder that summer officially begins at 6:09pm tomorrow as the Summer Solstice occurs.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers and lows in the 70s. Southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 90s. Southeasterly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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