Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 04 October 2018
… More Clouds and Better Rain Chances Late Friday into the Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a cold front extends southwestward from Illinois into Missouri and northern Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle and northeastern New Mexico then north northwestward into Colorado. Surface high pressure is situated from the Carolinas eastward over the western Atlantic Ocean. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving slowly northeastward from Nevada and Arizona as it is ejected from a broad trough of low pressure over the western third of the USA. An upper level high is over northern Mexico.. Texas and eastward over the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are light and variable.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
We’ll continue to be in a rather typical early fall weather pattern as upper air high pressure, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, strengthens overhead, I see a drier and more stable pattern continuing into tomorrow.
As the upper air low off the coast of southern California moves eastward, rain chances will show up again in the forecast beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend well into next week. NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests upwards of 1/2 inch, on average, over the next seven days with isolated heavier amounts.
I do not see any cold frontal passages over the next seven day period; however, longer range guidance suggests a stronger cold front into northwest Texas by the middle into latter part of next week.
Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 04 October 2018
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 91. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with isolated late afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 90. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated evening rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 87. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY /COLUMBUS DAY/…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 11 October 2018 through Wednesday / 17 October 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (04Oct)………………………………………. 7:26 am
Sunset this evening (04Oct)………………………………………… 7:12 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (05Oct)…………………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset tomorrow (05Oct)……………………………………………. 7:11 pm