Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 20 September 2018
… Rain Chances Head Upward …
… One to Three Inches of Rain, On Average, over Next Four or Five Days …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… weak high pressure continues over the Ohio River Valley southward into the southeastern USA and Texas. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure extends from eastern Colorado southward into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light and variable or light south southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving slowly eastward from the intermountain west into the southwestern USA. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, has moved eastward a bit and is now centered over the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are south southwestern 20 to 30 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Another slug of clouds and rain showers and thunderstorms, associated with disturbance, will move northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico and into south Texas. At the same time, the upper level trough, or line, of low pressure over the western USA will move eastward into the Rockies and the plains states and a weak area of low pressure moves eastward from northern Mexico into Texas. Finally, on Saturday, a weak cold front will move southeastward into the area as it washes out. All of this will combine to produce increased clouds as well as much better rain chances beginning tomorrow and continuing through the weekend. The latest guidance suggests the possibility of some heavier rain at times. NWS/Weather Prediction Center estimates that we’ll see 1 to 3 inches of rain during the period with isolated heavier totals.
Earlier thoughts about upper level high pressure.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. rebuilding over the area by early next week looks to have been premature. Rain chances now are likely to continue into the early and mid part of next week as the first stronger fall cold front arrives Wednesday with rain shower and thunderstorm chances continuing.
Skies will clear with cooler temperatures following for Thursday into Friday of next week.
Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
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Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 20 September 2018
TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 92. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average less than 1/4 inch. High 89. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 86. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 86. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 88. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 88. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the morning hours. Decreasing clouds in the afternoon. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 84. Southwesterly wind shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 27 September 2018 through Wednesday / 03 October 2018…
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20Sep)………………………………………. 7:18 am
Sunset this evening (20Sep)………………………………………… 7:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21Sep)…………………………………………… 7:19 am
Sunset tomorrow (21Sep)……………………………………………. 7:28 pm