Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 11 September 2018
… Unsettled Weather Pattern Continuing …
… Rain Chances Continuing …
… Watching the Gulf of Mexico by Late Week for Tropical Development …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening stationary front extends northeastward from deep south Texas along the Texas coast into southern Louisiana.. southern Mississippi.. and southern Alabama. Surface high pressure is located over the Ohio Valley states and the middle Mississippi River valley. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are northeasterly.
On the upper air map… a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind flow is over the USA with an embedded eastward moving upper air low pressure disturbance over the St. Lawrence River Valley as well as over British Columbia. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues over the southwestern USA as well as along the mid Atlantic seaboard of the USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are south southwesterly about 50 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
With the weakening stationary front still sitting along the Texas coast, a moist and unstable air mass will, over the next few days, produce scattered on-and-off rain shower and thunderstorm activity for south central Texas.
As the result of cloud cover and areas of precipitation, afternoon high temperatures will continue to be below seasonal averages.
We’re still watching the disturbance currently located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
While there are no “whats, whys and wheres” or even “if” at this point, the NWS/National Hurricane Center has a recently increased to a 60% chance of tropical development as the system continues to move northwestward toward the western Gulf of Mexico and the Texas coast by late this week.
At this point, I’m going to stick with a mostly cloudy sky and increased rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, for late week into the weekend.
It should be noted that this continues to be a low confidence forecast until we can resolve whether the tropical system will get better developed and, then, of course, where it goes and its timing. I will continue to monitor this closely.
Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
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Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 11 September 2018
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 80. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 70. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 84. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 87. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 87. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will 1/4 inch. Low 73. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 86. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 89. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 74. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 90. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 18 September 2018 through Monday / 24 September 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11Sep)………………………………………. 7:13 am
Sunset this evening (11Sep)………………………………………… 7:41 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (12Sep)…………………………………………… 7:14 am
Sunset tomorrow (12Sep)……………………………………………. 7:40 pm