Updated 915am CT – Friday / 07 September 2018
… Rainfall Chances and Amounts Continue Higher Through the Weekend …
… A Drier Weather Pattern Unfolds for Next Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening stationary front extends southwestward from Arkansas to along the IH35 corridor in south central Texas. Surface high pressure is well to the east over the Carolinas as well as out west over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light and variable.
On the upper air map… a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind flow is over the USA with an embedded upper air low pressure disturbance over the central plains. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues over the eastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northeasterly about 10 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
A moist and unstable air mass will, over the next few days, produce scattered on-and-off rain shower and thunderstorm activity. The weakening cold front, to the north, has indeed (as predicted) settled south southeastward in our area by later today into the weekend. All of these factors will combine to create a rather wet weekend. Some gusty winds and, of course, dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany the stronger thunderstorms. NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests that we’ll see, on average, 2 to 4 inches of rain between and next Monday.
As the result of cloud cover and areas of precipitation, afternoon high temperatures will be, for the first time in a while, closer or even below seasonal averages.
Upper level high pressure will become more established with a drier and more stable weather pattern once we get into next week.
Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT… Friday / 07 September 2018
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 93. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 inch or more. High 90. South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 inch or more. Low 72. Wind becoming light northwesterly.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 90. Light north northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 72. Light wind.
MONDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 90. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered mainly afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 91. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 91. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered mainly afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 91. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 14 September 2018 through Thursday / 20 September 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (07Sep)………………………………………. 7:11 am
Sunset this evening (07Sep)………………………………………… 7:46 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (08Sep)…………………………………………… 7:12 am
Sunset tomorrow (08Sep)……………………………………………. 7:45 pm